Global Comment

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A triangular geopolitical crisis in Kashmir

Map of Kashmir

Kashmir is no longer a suzerain state. It is now directly under the Indian President’s Union Territory. This isn’t the end, Kashmir has been re-fragmented and the Ladakh region is divided into a separate union. About 46% of Muslims now are separate from the mainstream Muslim Kashmiris. On August 5th, Articles 370 and 35-A were repealed by the BJP Government of India in the state of Kashmir.

Following the revocation of the Constitution’s Article 370, Kashmir won’t have any power to guarantee significant autonomy for their Muslim-majority state. And repealing 35-A now, Indians from out J&K can own property here.

An addition of nearly 40 thousand troops and militia troops were deployed in Kashmir within seven days before action was taken. Currently, there are about 600 thousand members of the military and semi-military present in the armed forces.

There’s been war between India and Pakistan in Kashmir in 1948 and 1965. In 1948, Pakistan occupied almost one-third of Kashmir region, known as Azad-Kashmir and Gilgit-Balistan (Northern Area). Currently, 33,308 miles of the area are under the occupation of Pakistan.

Greater Kashmir is divided into three parts following the China-India war of 1962. Aksai Chin is under the occupation of the Republic of China (China considers the Aksai Chin to be part of the Tibet Autonomous Region and its own Xinjiang Province) with a size of 37,244 sq. km. China claims that the China-India border in the Ladakh region hasn’t yet been finalized. So, it’s easy to say that the Kashmir crisis is now three pronged. Because of separating Ladakh into a union state, it will be treated as the border in the North-West with China.

In the context of the 1962 China-India war and the collapse of Pakistan in 1971, a massive change was felt in the Kashmir’s geostrategic position. For this reason, the Chinese are directly involved in the complexity of Kashmir. In 1963, Pakistan gave China the Trans-Karakoram track (800 miles). This track is administered by China but it was regarded by Pakistan as part of Kashmir until 1963. The long-drawn strip was given to China on the eve of the border correction and the creation of the Karakoram Highway Track. As U.S military aid stops, Pakistan and its armed forces tie a high level geo-strategic, territorial, economic and diplomatic relationship with China.

Currently, Pakistan is the main route for China because of the Middle East and north Africa’s energy transmission. On the other hand, China uses from Hamas Abdel of Pakistan up to the mountain pass (defile) of Gilgit-Balistan. Because of this, Pakistan built a special force with China to protect both of their (Pak-China) economic corridors.

The Karakoram Highway is the only route linking the Gwadar Port with Xinjiang. This Gwadar Port is a deep sea port situated on the Arabian Sea at Gwadar in the Baluchistan Province of Pakistan, which is now and will be operated by the China Overseas Port Holding Company until 2059.

The Karakoram Highway in the Shaksgam Valley is very important not just for communication but also for the military. This route is the only way for Pakistan to drive though Central Asia to the East. This is where India have their military and geostrategic weaknesses, which are due to the height of Saltora in the Karakoram Range, which we have also known as the name of Siachen Glacier. Here, there was a battle between India & Pakistan on 13th April, 1984 where Indian troops took the control of Siachen Glacier. Ever since then, both the countries have been deploying their troops on the Glacier.

The altitude of the battlefield is 18,875 feet and it’s 11 875 feet towards China. Although it is not of any diplomatic importance, the Siachen Glacier has the ability to increase its flow of the rivers originated from the Glacier; crucial for both India and Pakistan. On the other hand, this height is important for the Karakoram Highway and for the observation of China’s occupying Aksai.

In the last 20 years, about 20,000 soldiers from both sides have lost their lives due to the cold in the region. There is a daily expenditure of two Crore rupees for the military presence in India’s border line of Siachen Glacier, which totals about 277K $ every day. It’s supposed to be similar to the cost of Pakistan on a daily basis.

India is also concerned with the possibility of handing over the Shaksgam Valley in the Karakoram Range to the Chinese Government, besides the Aksai Chin by Pakistan. Meanwhile, 2700 sq. km of Pakistan have been already handed over to China. China is not just demanding the majority of the Siachen, but has not acknowledged the Johnson Border Line yet.

In 1962, China wasn’t just worrying about including the Aksai chin in their own territorial border line but still persisted in the demand of the then North-East Frontier Agency (NEFA) of East India (Now Arunachal Pradesh). China has always thought that about the 8000-foot plateau of the current Arunachal Pradesh was part of South Tibet and that is why China seems to be rational in its claims in that area. There is no doubt that there is a dispute about whether this region was a place that once belonged to Tibet. But it’s true that it belongs to Tibetan Buddhists as their holy place because of where the 6th Dalai Lama was born.

Indian-controlled Kashmir loses its suzerainty by following the revocation of the Indian constitution. This won’t be allowing the former tributary state to have internal autonomy.

Indian’s Home Minister puts more fuel in this critical situation. He said in the parliament that he’s ready to even risk his own life to occupy Pakistan-controlled Kashmir and re-engage it with Indian Kashmir. In response, Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan, spoke in his country’s parliament of the consequences of starting another war. The Indian Minister for Defense replied indirectly and spoke of nuclear weapons. He also has a similarly passive threat for Pakistan. Such threats are making the subcontinent unstable. It is noted that the three countries involved in the Kashmir dispute are all nuclear-powered neighboring countries. It may start a war that will turn out into a massive crisis that will affect not only the SAARC countries but also the wider world.

According to India’s claim, Kashmir is in its internal affairs, but it’s not the same as China and Pakistan. After over 54 years since the Kashmir issue, it has been re-issued to the UN Security Council. In a meeting, China said in strong language that no unilateral action should be taken in Kashmir. Whereas China has taken a strong position in Pakistan’s favor.

The possibilities of getting Kashmir’s suzerain control back or even a true sovereignty seems quite impossible because their regions are controlled by three countries directly and who knows how many indirectly.

Reports and viral videos from social media prove that something bad has been going on in Kashmir. Peoples are getting charged by the military armies, cities are being trampled, and Kashmiris who want independence are repeating the words, “Hum Kya Chahte? Azadi!” which stands for “What do we want? Freedom!”

Now whatever the cause is, we want to resolve this crisis through dialogue with the concerned countries and the people of Kashmir for their greater good. And as the Kashmir goes under a communication blackout now, it becomes our duty to amplify their voices and to bring global attention to the region.

Image credit: Nina Garman