Democracy is in crisis around the world, and nowhere is that more visible than in Central Asia – a region that is facing the rise of the populist authoritarians. For major global and regional powers, political stability in this part of the world remains a priority over the form of governance.
Recently, Kyrgyzstan held a constitutional referendum where 81 percent voted in favor of a presidential system over a parliamentary one. That will provide the country’s leader, Sadyr Japarov, the opportunity to stay in power for life. After Japarov won the presidential election on January 10, his powerful position will likely be additionally strengthened in the May parliamentary vote, where his party is expected to do well.
It is worth noting that the Kyrgyz leader served a term in prison on kidnapping charges before crowds freed him during protests against allegedly rigged elections in October 2020.
In January, in neighboring energy-rich Kazakhstan, the ruling Nur Otan party won the parliamentary elections with nearly 72 percent of the vote. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has pledged gradual political reforms since being eased into his post by former leader Nursultan Nazarbayev, who ruled the country for almost three decades. Although he officially left his post, Nazarbayev retained powerful positions including the chairmanship of the Nur Otan party. His eldest daughter, Dariga Nazarbayeva, has been elected to the country’s parliament and will likely play an important role in Kazakhstan’s political life.
Both, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are Russia’s allies and members of the Moscow-led Eurasian Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Russian influence in the region is still very strong and the Kremlin has managed to keep most Central Asian nations in its geopolitical orbit.
“We see the West’s desire to turn the post-Soviet space into a zone of constant conflicts and tension. We see our task in opposing such a policy. At the same time, sometimes we are accused of allegedly hatching plans to re-create the Soviet Union. This is not true. Moscow has consistently advocated equal and mutually beneficial cooperation with all post-Soviet countries, relying on the existing traditional ties in a variety of areas” said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko.
There are indeed fears that the Kremlin aims to create a new Soviet Union, and the very existence of the Eurasian Union is often seen as the first step in this direction. According to Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, his country should join the Eurasian Economic Union by the end of February. Such a move could additionally strengthen ties between Moscow and Tehran, although Russian President Vladimir Putin refused to meet with Ghalibaf in Moscow in February. According to reports, Russian authorities had demanded that Ghalibaf self-isolate for 15 days upon arrival to the Russian capital, which is something that the Iranian official strongly opposed.
Critics claim that Putin has been sitting in his basement, often called a bunker, for a year. His self-isolation may look like a product of psychosis or paranoia, although there are rumors that the Kremlin leader’s health is in critical condition. In any case, speaking of Central Asia the Russian President recently said that what is happening in the region is not the result of short-term developments, but rather from the countries’ efforts to find their own path.
The Central Asian nations may still look for their own path, but many people from countries such as Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan look for ways to migrate to Russia. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic they can’t go to Russia and cannot find a job at home. For instance, Tajikistan, which is one of the most remittance-reliant countries in the world, posted a 50 percent remittance decline in March and April 2020. Thus, if people living in Central Asia don’t find jobs, be it at home or aboard, social tensions in the region are expected to grow.
In the meantime, Central Asia will likely remain a core region for major global and regional powers’ struggle for natural resources. Russia’s vision of the strategy of the Eurasian Union and China of “March West” were proposed around the same time. Those projects could eventually lead to a serious political competition between Moscow and Beijing over this strategic region where the European Union, the United States, Turkey and India also have significant geopolitical interests.
Image credit: kremlin.ru