Izvestia charges that by attacking South Ossetia, Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili had actually badly botched a planned U.S. military operation against Iran. With US rockets at the ready, fighter-bombers fueled , bombs primed, locked and loaded, the entire plan was thwarted by the Russian Army, which moved into South Ossetia at that government’s request.

In Izvestia’s opinion, Georgia was supposed to play the role of yet another one of the U.S.’s “unsinkable aircraft carriers” -  an operational and tactical base for American aircraft that would be making bombing raids into Iran, something like the role played by Thailand in the Vietnam War.

Thailand certainly benefited from the arrangement, and Georgia would have too, asserts the paper, if Georgia’s President hadn’t put his own ambitions above the U.S. national interest and ended up bloody and beaten, disarmed, chattering and chewing on his neckties, utterly incapable of providing what the Americans wanted from him. This is all due to Russian tanks that drove the Georgians back after their illegal incursion into South Ossetia last autumn

This is why, according to Izvestia’s other article in the series, the U.S. response to Russia’s retaliation against Georgia was to fuss at the Russians, but never threaten direct action.

I would personally bet the farm that if the elite U.S. military academy at West Point there were not a constant curricular reminder: “Never Get Involved in a Land War in Asia.” Had the French in the 19th and the Germans in the 20th century had such a reminder, they could have avoided much suffering.

The latest development on the issue suggests that the U.S. may oust Mr. Saakashvili “any day now,” or so says Izvestia. This factoid published just last month may have been thrown in to just scare the poor chump. The Russians know a good dramatic moment when they see one.

As loony as all this may sound, we need to talk possibilities here.

Early last August, CNN started reporting that U.S. military commanders were begging for more boots on the ground and hardware for operations in Afghanistan, which they felt, was quickly becoming a more intensive conflict than Iraq. Now, in April 2009, we know how true that is.

The Taliban and Al-Qaeda are back with a vengeance. Afghanistan, we remember, is the graveyard of imperial dreams. The British in the 19th century and the Soviets in the 1980s both left as losers, although the British covered their losses better, there being no TV journalism at the time. There is certainly TV journalism now and it can change history.

In a report from Evgeny Belensiy, just back from Kandahar, Afghanistan , where learn he has seen 1000 or more heavy American Abrams battle tanks being unloaded from Ukranian Antonov-124 – “Ruslan” – cargo airplanes, the largest in the world. Ostensibly, these American tanks were on their way to Afghanistan as part of the new “surge” against Al-Queida and the Taliban, or so reporters were told by the US military.

Huh? What were they good for in Afghanistan? Not much. It doesn’t take a military genius to see that most of Afghanistan is mountainous territory where tanks are simply inoperable. Look at a map. See what I mean?

However, these tanks would be good for the flatlands of Iran right across the border. Iran is a high plateau covered with, well, desert. Big stretches of avoidable sand seas with 100 foot (30 m) waves rolling east and sharp ridges with no vegatation running mostly east and west. Great battle positions for tanks and American troops.

But wait a sec. All this has to be put in some sort of context. More than a thousand heavy U.S. battle tanks and other armor unloaded in Kandahar. Why? For any Middle Easterner, these tanks mean only one thing: trouble.

With information from “Jane’s” we can do better than casting bones. “Jane’s” is a highly respected intelligence weekly which reports on anything that might rock the boat for those doing business in any area of the world, those who want to report on the area and those who are just curious – like me. I find it curious why so much US heavy armor was being shipped to a country where it could not be used effectively, but adjacent to a country where it could be used with great success. The US military is not that stupid.

Izvestia said that all current US troops in Afghanistan are going to be reassigned and regrouped under the unified command of General Petraeus, and discussed the arrival of NATO naval ships in the Black Sea (you didn’t know that, did you?). You still think Izvestia got it all wrong? Maybe not.

Of course, Turkey is in NATO. Maybe it’s only Turkish ships in the Black Sea. This is the problem when you research things. You don’t always find out what you think you want to find out when you begin.

Remember last fall how a story surfaced in the world press that Israel had tried to persuade the US to join a planned mission to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, but the US refused? If you took note, do you remember how fast it disappeared from the headlines?

George W. Bush and Dick Cheney refused a joint adventure with Israel against Iran? Fat chance. The only thing that would bring such an operation down once all the gears, wheels and whistles were in place, is something unexpected. There was Saakashvili’s stupid grab for power, and Russian tanks vigorously skirting Georgia with incessant patrols, making an unsinkable aircraft carrier in Georgia unlikely. Izvestia claims victory for Russia in a conflict that did not happen. Of course, these are the best kinds of conflicts.

Believe me, I’m not saying that the US is going to start military action against Iran come dawn. Or that it was even prepared to do so, pre-Obama. But there are too many coincidences here, and I believe it came close last fall.

Personally, I think the election of Barack Obama scuppered the plan. Yet I also believe there was such a contingency plan because it would be militarily stupid not to have one. The writers working for Izvestia were not completely full of hot air.

I think Izvestia was saying: “Here are the facts. You decide what they mean.” Which is just good journalism.

Oh, and backing Kosovo independence with no UN approval is totally not the same thing as backing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. At all. Hey, look over there, it’s a bear with a semi-automatic!

Of course, the Russian Federation’s own, rather special, government, was itching for this confrontation as well. How else to distract the rest of the country from the fact that, for all of Russia’s economic growth, an oil-based economy is not the greatest of ideas? Or the fact that journalists are getting shot in the head and the country’s free press has reached of the mythical Yeti, occasionally glimpsed, but mostly regarded as a figment of our collective imagination?

Between the two sides, it’s hard to decide which players are more hilarious. Is it Condoleeza “Of course, I didn’t imply fighting in South Ossetia was cool.” Rice? Is it Vladimir “Totally not Russia’s President anymore. Totally.” Putin?

Perhaps most hilarious of all are the regular people, the ones complaining loudly that the MI5 isn’t doing enough to stop visiting Russian businessmen from getting all the good restaurant tables, or else sending me e-mails which claim the cream of British society uses finely dusted Russian babies to powder their aristocratic noses.

Regular people are the true heroes when it comes to sustaining and, dare I say it? Glamourizing the entire conflict. Or, at the very least, they make it slightly less boring than all of the rest of the unchangeable news. These fine people may not possess dazzling intellects, hell, their entire knowledge of current affairs may be incidental to their interest in the latest Page 3 Girl (or the local equivalent thereof), but this never quite stops them from shutting up, and their Rocky-like dedication and persistence surely leaves something to be admired.

The origins of both Russophobia and the xenophobic currents in Russian thought were well-illustrated by Jacques Barzun who, in his famous From Dawn To Decadence: 500 Years of Western Cultural Life viciously tore into Czar Peter the Great and remarked, in passing, that Russians are essentially as repulsive to gentle, civilized Europeans as they were when Peter visited Europe (for all the praise heaped on that book, one still may have noticed the Russophobia in those comments).

Yet Barzun was not alone in this – Russians tear into Peter the Great as well, because of his interest in Europe, his desire to change Russia, his creation of utterly modern and, in many ways, foreign St. Petersburg. It is religious fundamentalists in particular who have many issues with Peter and how he changed the course of Russian history. I don’t find most of these people particularly pleasant but, at the very least, they represent a diversity of thought that isn’t commonly attributed to Russia.

The internal conflict over the definition of Peter the Great’s actions and reforms mirrors the greater ambivalence of Russia’s relationship with the West. This relationship is like a very strange affair between two highly unstable people who can’t be together but don’t really exist apart from each other, as if the rejection of the other helps define to them who they really are, though the definitions themselves are hopelessly self-delusional at best. Maybe they have tattoos of each other’s names on unmentionable body parts, but if they do, they’re not telling.

When the blow-up happened between Russia and Georgia, it felt as though a threshold had been crossed. Yet once you begin to consider history, you have to wonder whether the threshold is there at all.

For a little more than a week I’ve been out of town with the family. Myself, my lady, and the kid are not very far from Tbilisi, in Narekvavi village. It’s an hour of driving, less if there are no patrols in view and one gives oneself the liberty of exceeding the speed limit.

It’s summer, the seashore is calling. Tbilisi looks half-empty. It is a pleasure driving even in town, where one is usually stuck up in traffic jams half of the time. Yours truly has been to town to do some shopping, such as can’t be done locally. Next sortie is planned for Tuesday.

It is much cooler up there on the mountain slope in the summer cottage than down in Tbilisi. The garden is green, starlings and snails cover every flat and cool surface. Tortoises live in the vegetable patch (not looked after for a year and yet still proudly sporting a single, large cabbage), the night before a hedgehog has all but wondered into the house, and a hen from some of the neighboring houses pays daily visits to dig for wheat. There is a TV set, but the antenna is broken, so life is calm and quiet.

We take strolls to the village every evening. Like regular townsfolk we must seem, especially because the kid keeps gaping and exclaiming whenever we meet a pig or a cow.

The first news reach us in the local store where I venture to get myself some beer for the evening. ‘There is war in Samachablo (Georgian name for the region known as South Ossetia)’ they tell me. I wave off the hint of alarm in my thoughts with ‘oh, can’t be more than some borderline skirmish, not in August, not with the calm mood I’m in.’

August 7th

Life goes on normally but for news gathered at the local store. It is serious fighting, they say.

August 8th – 9th

The village, whenever one goes down to it, seems crowded. Closer examination proves my impression is correct – the population has been doubled by fugitives from villages nearer the action.

Narekvavi itself is not very far off – it’s barely 30 miles to Gori hence. One woman asks me to repair her phone, I fail miserably. People carry with them news of fighting, of people killed and wounded, and houses destroyed. It’s positive anxiety I’m now experiencing, but I’m saving face for the sake of the kid and my lady. A petty quarrel over something trivial the day before seems now indeed petty and trivial.

My lady’s nephew is in the reserve. These are kids of 20 barely, the whole bunch of them, scarcely trained, and they have been moved into the region

I am bewildered. It can’t be happening – for all their faults the Russian Government can’t be mad enough to be doing this, can they?

I have repaired the antenna the best I could, the TV is on round the clock, relaying more things to get alarmed about. Internet access is down (I had used my mobile for internet).

August 10th – 11th

Days full of tossing about. Should we leave? Should we stay?

The main road is in view, not very far off. Our tanks have passed in the wrong direction, to the east – it means we are now ahead of the main line of defense, and rumor has it that bands of looters are not very far off either. Examination of the map shows the nearest village they have been reported to have raided is only 15 miles west.

The bombing scares us more than the marauders for the time being, it is decided we stay put. Sortie to the store revealed the shortage of foodstuff may be looming with routes of supply being cut off.

I spent all one had on me on long-lasting provision like pasta and canned fish and milk for the kid. No bread, one has to make do with dried biscuit. The main road is still open and the babysitter has shown a lot of bravery, to be still coming up daily.

We have two parcels with documents, kid’s food, and some clothing at the ready if it becomes clear one has better run for it. All kinds of hearsay coming in: bombing of civilian targets? Nay, that can’t be happening… can it?

Apparently, it can and is happening. I am carrying an axe with me, just in case. No good against firearms, and the very thought of probably having to use it is revolting, but the axe-brandishing show may give time to kid and wife to slip through the back door if necessary – there is one in the hedge opening onto the higher wooded slope.

Good news about the nephew – the reserve has been withdrawn, now that is clear the Russians have brought in the main force. I am having kind of warm feelings towards the Government, which I never liked much before – all they officially say on TV has a ring of truth about it, and now the decision to spare the kids when they could have easily ordered them to stand the ground (and get totally wiped out by 1,200 tanks rumor has that the Russians have brought in) is a good one.

I don’t want to ponder things for long – it is the weekend, the babysitter who comes by bus daily has the weekends off, and the kid takes a lot of looking after. Housework must be done and a pig has to be chased out of the garden. Routine helps one keep steady.

August 12th

Stupid, stupid, stupid decision to stay. The road is finally blocked, and looters reported 7 miles off.

Axe is definitely no good. Food is in abundance, water too, but now, apart from the net access, electricity keeps going off and on. Good thinking to have bought so many candles. But still, stupid, stupid, stupid decision to stay. Or maybe not?

The main road is in view, but still the cottage is off it. If one keeps the house blacked out, may it pass for uninhabited? Would an uninhabited house draw less attention, or maybe a better decision would be to light it all up and show that here’s numerous people in?

Where did I put that axe? What was that noise? I am outside with an axe, wearing pajamas (it must have been a pathetic thing to look upon), but it’s only a hedgehog rustling the dry leaves.

August 13th

We have decided to bolt for it, but will my 16-year-old hatchback make it through the by-ways?

Luckily for me I’ve had new shock absorbers put in just a day or two before the violence began, the whole of the front suspension has been looked into and brought into working condition too.

Several hours of cautious crawling the roads that resemble drier river beds rather than paths a car can get through, and we are back to Tbilisi. Mood: relief. Relief to the point I could not stop laughing for ten minutes at a very dumb joke heard in the store where I went to get some matches. Relief to not have to think about the axe, what can be done with it, and where did I put it down anyway.

When this immediate sense of relief is washed away, the town distresses me. On every corner, people exchanging bits of gossip with grave faces: “X has been looted, Y has been bombed, so and so has been killed”. In the hurried departure yesterday we’ve left a lot of important things behind. Cash is also running short – hell of a lot has been spent on creating a food supply for a month of siege in the cottage, some has to be saved for possible flight, and of course most of the foodstuff has been left behind anyway, for there are limits to what can be successfully fitted into the trunk of an Opel Astra hatchback.

I still don’t have much time to ponder things. There is a passport to be made for the kid – the plan is to send the lady and the kid away to the kid’s aunt in Kiev, Ukraine. The more you pay, the quicker you get it, so payment is 10 times its usual price to have it made by tomorrow.

August 14th

Of course the passport is not ready. The town is full of fugitives now, all Civil Registry agencies are full of people being registered, and no question of getting nearer than 100 yards away the door. Passport department is closed anyway. Shouting: “When”? Shouting back: “Come tomorrow”.

The road is rumored to be open, better make a dash back to the village now that I’m alone and more mobile, the food will come in handy, definitely, what with all the money wasted on a passport that is not there, and all that is to be saved for tickets to Ukraine.

Contrary to rumor, the town exit is blocked by police.

“Where to?”

“Mskheta” (town nearest to the village I’m actually going to)

“Ok, it’s possible, the road is blocked past Natakhtari, but come later – we are expecting the column of military to pass by.”

The row of civilian cars waiting for the road to open looks like it’s 3 miles in length. At the post they won’t let me pass– ‘we expect yet another column’. Going back I see ‘another’ – same story. I’m stubborn, or silly, the columns are numerous – the story gets repeated 4 times unless I admit my defeat and go home. Hope looters aren’t feasting on my canned fish at the cottage. Let them choke if they do.

On the positive side – internet access is much better in town, though DSL is down, mobile is regained.

August 15th

Another visit to local Civil Registry Agency. The crowd even bigger than the previous day, but there’s a hopeful sign – note: ‘for passports, apply to such and such office elsewhere’.

Passport is ready, even if I spent an eternity in queue. Drawback – they’ve lost the kid’s birth certificate. If it can’t be found, there would be a lot of trouble restoring it, but this isn’t relevant now – the passport is what matters. I took the passport picture myself (decided to spare him a visit to the crowded official studio, and the chaps in there then did wonders in Photoshop removing greenery from the background). He has a real serious look.

The road is again said to be open. Deciding to try my luck I head to the town exit once again. Same patrol as before and same questioning of ‘where to’, but now they let me out. An hour of steady driving and here it is, Narekvavi.

It does look deserted; though far off a solitary man can be seen driving a solitary cow with a stick. The house is untouched, some hours of packing and checking if the doors are properly shut, and I head back to Tbilisi. The main thought – now I can shave. No razors to be found in Tbilisi, apart from other things, shortage is attributed to Russians blocking the main route some 30 miles off West. That’d be at about 7 miles West ‘as the crow flies’ from the village.

I’m glad to be out of there quickly.

August 16th

The work over – I’ve got tickets for the kid and my lady. ‘No earlier than next Friday, 22nd, Sir, unfortunately nothing can be booked earlier’, but Friday is good enough, I figure. One can relax a little and stop running to and fro on errands of this and that.

But one keeps mentally repeating the list: ‘Ok, I’ve got food, I’ve got candles, I’ve got kerosene, I’ve got a full tank of petrol, I’ve got passports, I’ve got tickets, I’ve got everything’. I sit and watch the news, and visit usual online haunts.

Someone on one of the forums I frequent is incautious enough to ask me for ‘reasons of all that’. Seemingly, I now have leisure to feel anger apart from being scared and anxious, for what I come out with ‘on the spot’, without rehearsal, is as follows:

Reasons: Pipeline (in case that’s intercepted the alternative is Russian pipeline), NATO (‘our former in our very soft South underbelly can’t be part of NATO’), and personal dislike of our President Saakashvili by Russian Prime Minister Putin.

Then there is Kosovo – “if they should get independence, why shouldn’t the Ossetians?” – the thinking goes.

Then there is Iraq – “if US can hang whomever they dislike, why can’t we?”

There is the protection of Russian Citizens, Russia gave out passports to South Ossetians, to have a pretext, I am guessing. Why then, I ask, are Russian citizens proper, not of the kind as described above, all with very Russian surnames in their very Russian passports, have been robbed by the very Russian Army on road the other day? Can you even call this an army?

What kills me is how people who said that it is wrong for Kosovo to gain independence use the very same Kosovo as justification for invasion now.

And we have Russia issying lengthy speeches of being a ‘protector of Orthodox Christianity all over the globe,’ but forcing the very Orthodox Christian monks out of their Monastery ‘because Moscow Patriarchy will take over this now.’

The official Russian version is ‘let’s free the proud Georgian People of this bloody tyrant Saakashvili, they will be all that thankful for that.’

I guess it was not the case of disliking us per se at first – it was just that Mr. Putin took dislike to Mr. Saakasvhili (who is not very likeable, I don’t like him myself). That would not have been the case if our President have been the kind to lick Mr. Putin’s heels, but he is not.

Openly expressed intention to go with the West has been considered a personal insult by Mr. Putin I guess. “It’s been our province for 200 years [a story of betrayal – our King sought support, not invasion, when signing a treaty with Russia in 1783[ we can’t let them go to NATO now”.

Then there is propaganda (TV is under state control in Russia, you know). After 8 years it became that Georgia with its 30K army and 4 million people was leading in the polls of ‘whom you consider the main enemies of Russia’ along with USA and Estonia (another archenemy of Russia, see, the whole 1 million people of Estonia’s population against the poor and defenseless 140 million Russians, of course it is the most fearsome enemy!).

The very conflicts in the disputed lands have been stirred by Russians in the late 80s last century. We have been driven out of both by the forces of the Russian Army in 1991 and 1993 respectively. Since then they use the ‘question of disputed territories’ as levers to force us to do their bidding. Saakashvili’s defiance caused all of this, I guess.

Besides, hen not all is well in your own home, you better make war against someone you are sure to beat, that relieves tension and turns you into a hero. Putin did the same in Chechnya in 1999.

The bastards in the Russian Government have an inferiority complex, always talking about how ‘Russia is getting up from the knees’, talking about their ‘Empire’ and how they are misunderstood by all the peoples of the globe.

Our army is very finite when compared to theirs, and you can’t beat people who fight by sheer numbers and never cared how much it cost them, when your own Army is only 30K and they keep pouring in: 1200 tanks are rumored to have entered Georgia.

Our main failure was failure to block the tunnel to Russia – the main route into our land. But then, if we started that, we would not have failed. How can you block a tunnel with a force of a battalion when a division is already on the other side, and another on the way through it and yet another on the other side?

George Lashkhi is a commentator on Georgia’s Channel 1 and a Tolkien enthusiast. He lives in Tbilisi.

Here are two things you ought to know about the conflict flaring up between Russia and Georgia:

First of all, Russia does not want NATO on her doorstep, and Georgia was getting ready to join NATO. Second of all, Georgia does not want to deal with the conflict that inevitably arises when certain parties, such as the South Ossetians, decide to break away.

I can understand where both sides are coming from. As much as I deplore Russia’s meddling in its neighbours’ affairs, I have to say that said meddling makes sense to the Kremlin. And as much as deplore Saakashvili’s government (have we already forgotten Georgia’s political crises?), I have to say that I understand not wanting to deal with the inevitable lawlessness that rebel regions such as South Ossetia create within and around themselves.

What horrifies is me is not just the violence, as if it isn’t bad enough, but the fact that being ethnically Russian and Ukrainian, I grew knowing that the Georgians are our friends. I grew up in a household in love with Georgian culture. To my Russian mother, Georgia was “the most beautiful place in the world,” and she wasn’t alone in this by far.

The people baying for blood on both sides, have they honestly forgotten our common ties? If the forgetting is this easy, perhaps we really ought to be worried about the future of Russia and Ukraine. The unthinkable is already happening before us, and history has entered a gloomy and bewildering chapter. This is the sort of thing that happens when empires fail; it’s bloody and vile. It reeks of gunpowder and rot and the dried-up glue that used to hold together our old, red memorial wreaths.

Now, for all the understandable grief surrounding the loss of life, I have found something to be bitterly amused about:

It’s hilarious how quickly some start shouting that “hey those are Russian citizens we are fighting for!!!” Yes, that is factually true, many South Ossetians do have Russian passports now, and Moscow has to take responsibility for these people whether it wants to or not.

But isn’t it funny how the people of that region, normally viewed as “black-assed thugs,” have suddenly become our brothers and sisters, our secret lovers and best friends?

Obviously this isn’t the philosophy of all Russian people, I am pointing this out because those I have seen beating their chests about how Moscow is being “overtaken” by “darkies” are the same people beating their chests over the fate of South Ossetians.

The absurdities of nationalism know no bounds.

The joy with which such people greet pictures of dead Georgians is diabolical. Their desire to see Russian soldiers fall due to some misguided notions regarding “glory” is equally diabolical. They do not value Georgian lives, but neither do they value the lives of their own troops or the lives of South Ossetians they are supposed to care about.

The loudest of the loud among us do not have sons serving in the Russian army, or so I have noticed.

This isn’t to say that I am a fan of Georgia’s President Saakashvili, however. I think it’s laughable that some writers are busy painting a picture of the genteel Saakashvili and uniformly bloodthirsty, fanged Russians. Have we learned nothing from Georgia’s squashed opposition? Do we really think that Saakashvili has the best interests of his people in mind? Or the best interests of the South Ossetians who are, predictably, almost invisible in this conflict?

Political elites benefit from grand-standing, regular people just lose their limbs in the process.

The West is no better in this regard. We have shouted all we could about Kosovo, OMIGOD Kosovo! The BBC quickly points out lawlessness in South Ossetia, but it takes years for anyone to mention lawlessness in aforementioned Kosovo. This is because it was easy to get involved in the Balkans, and not so easy to do the same in this part of the world.

Ultimately, the nations who have encouraged Georgia to join NATO will wash their hands of this conflict. When it comes to what matters more, Tbilisi or Moscow, Moscow will win out. It’s expedient to kick smaller nations to the curb in favour of the big guys, and I say this as someone who has a hell of a lot in common with the Russian Federation and its interests.

Who knows? Perhaps this entire conflict will serve to benefit Russian-American relations. On Air Force One, high above the toils of ordinary life and death, people who will benefit from this disaster can toast each other while the dead are being buried.

It’s not fair. It’s politics. And the only thing left for those not directly involved may be simply to turn away. As one of my Russian friends put it: “I don’t give a s—. It’s summer. Beautiful women in light dresses and sandals are about. I am young enough to pay attention to beautiful women, and old enough to not be interested in f—– up political games.”

My gentle readers might think it downright evil to turn away as people are dying. But if there’s anything that the Russians have learned long ago, is that our opinions, particularly ones that involve the tiniest bit of logic or, egads, even mercy – rarely matter.

As for me, I was looking forward to doing my job, as in, writing about the Olympics. As usual, the notion of the world coming together must take a backseat to violence.