Global Comment

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The US Midterms: A Swing to the Right

For those not in the US, the nation’s constantly churning election cycle must appear utterly nonsensical. Every time a political race ends and an election wraps up, accompanied by the usual punditry, a new one starts — sometimes the yard signs are barely yanked up before a new set are plunked down, while campaign headquarters hastily put up a new coat of paint with a different name emblazoned over the doors. There’s no breathing room between elections, with politicians constantly jostling for position in the next one, and the next, and the one after that.

The US operates in a constant state of partisanship, though technically its only major elections occur on a biennial cycle; the Presidential election every four years, and the midterms, with Congresspeople and Senators rotating out throughout the election cycle depending on when they were elected into office (Senate terms are six years, Congresspeople serve two).

Popular opinion has it that midterm elections in the United States are like a referendum on the current Presidential administration (curiously, not a referendum on Congress?). in a serious of election results that spilled red across the nation as Republicans wrested control of Congress. Numerous Republicans were quick to say that the results were a damning indictment of Obama, and at least one, Ron Paul, seemed to think that Hillary Clinton owns a TARDIS, for he claimed that the results were also a referendum on her Presidency (perhaps Paul knows something we do not).

There were, however, a few bright spots on the horizon. One group that came out ahead (in some senses, but more about that in a minute) was women; North Carolina State Representative Alma Adams’ special election bid in the 12th District was successful, and she’ll be sworn in immediately, which makes her the record-setting 100th woman in the sitting Congress. While Congress may be controlled by Republicans now (including plenty of women), it’s a more diverse place than it ever has been, which bodes well for long-term political progress in the US.

Women also won out big against Scott Brown, who went down against a female candidate for the second time, this time in a different state. After losing to Elizabeth Warren in 2012, he went down against Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in the critical New Hampshire race. Brown may want to consider switching careers. In Iowa, meanwhile, two women were elected to Congress in a state that had never sent a female representative to Washington.

In a historic moment for the South, Republican Tim Scott became the first Black senator elected by popular vote (he was an incumbent, but he had been appointed to his first term to fill a vacant seat). Along the Eastern Seaboard, Maura Healey (MA) became the first openly gay Attorney General in the United States.

There were individual sparks of progressivism across the US, too, some in surprising places. Colorado swatted down yet another offensive and misguided “personhood” amendment intending to give fetuses the same rights as living human beings, while Arkansas voted to raise the minimum wage to $7.50/hour, with Nebraska similarly joining the minimum wage increase juggernaut. Illinois also voted yes to an increase, with the caveat that the state legislature must approve the measure. Massachusetts voters, following a year of surprisingly positive initiative and proposition results in a number of states, approved a paid sick leave initiative.

But despite individual progressive wins like these, overall, the United States is facing a turn to the right in the wake of the election. It’s not just gubernatorial results like Scott Walker in Wisconsin; Senator Mitch McConnell will be heading up the Congressional Republicans, and he’s prominently and repeatedly promised to obstruct the President whenever possible. Though the two may have radically differing political beliefs, McConnell’s utter disinterest in bipartisanship means that Congress and the President will be at loggerheads for the next two years, at great cost to the people living in the US.

A Republican-controlled Congress can do considerable damage in two years, both in terms of repealing existing legislation and attempting to slam through a number of regressive laws in advance of 2016. Republicans may count, in fact, on playing to their base with aggressive anti-immigrant, anti-labour, and anti-woman legislation, the fight for LGBQT equality is likely to become prominent in Congress again, and other protected classes & mdash; like disabled people in need of government support, and people of colour facing down ugly voter ID laws — are also likely to be at risk in the coming years.

Peculiarly, while much of the US voted very liberally on state propositions and initiatives, the voter turnout still led to a net conservative bent. Protected classes in the US are facing a very rough two years as they confront a hostile Congress. If the Republicans solidify their base, the US could be looking at a flip in the White House in 2016, which would be even worse news given the extremist bent of the Republican party. And that has potential significant foreign policy implications, too. If the US was willing to launch two wars and untold international violence under its last Republican President, imagine how much worse it would be under one bolstered by eight years of Republican extremism and an apparent personal mandate to ‘take America back,’ as Republicans are already crowing.

As in prior years, some aspects of the election are being called into doubt, too. The Chicago Sun-Times was reporting election irregularities including false information provided to precinct judges and abnormally long voting lines before the polls had even closed on Tuesday, and Chicago likely won’t be the only region with questionable returns. This piled on top of voter ID laws and other voter suppression tactics leads one to wonder: Could the Republicans have really taken the Democrats in a fair fight?