Myanmar seems to be on the verge of a full-blown civil war. The energy-rich country has long been prey for various regional and global actors, including Russia. What are Moscow’s ambitions in the Southeast Asian nation?
On February 1, Myanmar’s generals seized power in a coup, triggering nationwide protests. It is believed that around 700 protesters and civilians have been killed over the past two and a half months. There are fears that demonstrations could turn into a major escalation that would soon result in ethnic clashes. Western countries, led by the United States, have already imposed sanctions on Myanmar’s powerful military leaders while China – Naypyidaw’s major trade partner – blocked a UN Security Council statement condemning the military coup. Still, Beijing carefully refuses to directly side with the coup leaders. The only major global power that de facto recognized the new authorities in Myanmar is Russia.
On March 27, Myanmar celebrated a national holiday – Armed Forces Day – and a large military parade was held. Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin not only attended the parade, but also met with the junta chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.
“I have a strong desire to develop economic ties between Myanmar and Russia. We are waiting for your businessmen” said General Min Aung Hlaing in an interview with Russian radio Echo of Moscow.
Some Russian corporations are already doing business in the Southeast Asian nation. In September 2006, Russia’s JSC Zarubezhneft Itera Oil and Gas Company and Sun Group of India jointly agreed to explore for oil and gas in the country with Myanmar’s state-owned Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE). Also, in 2007, Russia’s Silver Wave Sputnik Petroleum Pte Ltd. reportedly signed the same deal with MOGE. In 2011, there were reports that Russia’s energy giant Gazprom planned to conduct geological surveys in Myanmar. Moreover, Bashneft oil company already operates in the country and, in 2019, the firm started oil exploration in the former Burma. Still it is Beijing, rather than Moscow, that is the largest investor in the nation, focusing mostly on oil, gas, and mining.
Myanmar holds 23 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves as of 2017, ranking 39th in the world. The country is one of the major natural gas producers in the Asian continent. It also holds 50 million barrels of proven oil reserves as of 2016. It is estimated that 80 percent of the gas produced in Myanmar is exported to Thailand and China. The largest oil and gas fields are located in Rakhine state and its shelf zone in the Bay of Bengal. It is the place where clashes between Muslim Rohingya and Rakhine Buddhist communities regularly take place.
Although the Kremlin reportedly intends to develop significant energy projects in Myanmar, Russia’s role in Naypyidaw remains rather limited. Chinese, Indian and Western energy companies have a far greater presence in the country than Russia. In addition, Myanmar is seen as a territory of Chinese geopolitical interests. However, the former Burma is a long-time buyer of Russian arms; the country’s air superiority has expanded thanks to arms deals with the Kremlin. In the past, Myanmar has looked to Moscow mainly for combat aircraft and helicopters. Since the early 2000s, Myanmar has bought 30 Russian-made MiG-29 jet fighters, 12 Yak-130 jet trainers, 10 Mi-24 and Mi-35P helicopters, eight Pechora-2M anti-aircraft missile systems, and is now awaiting a fresh delivery of six Sukhoi-30 fighter planes.
Russia undoubtedly aims to strengthen military ties with Myanmar. It is worth noting that just days before the coup d’etat, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu visited the turbulent nation. There, he signed a contract with the country’s leadership for the sale of Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile and cannon systems, Orlan-10E drones and other weapons, including radars. Given the “new Cold War” rhetoric, it is strange that the Kremlin’s “Western partners” have not yet accused Russia of orchestrating the coup in Myanmar.
Speaking of the situation in the Southeast Asian country, Michelle Bachelet, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has recently warned that “there are clear echoes of Syria in 2011”. She was referring to the start of a civil war that over the past decade has killed nearly 400,000 people and forced more than six million to flee the country. Although Russia – one of the major backers of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad – has been directly involved in the Syrian civil war since 2015, at this point it is unclear if Moscow has large geopolitical ambitions in Mynamar. Indeed, the Kremlin will likely veto any UN attempt to impose an arms embargo on Naypyidaw, but given that the country is still in China’s geopolitical orbit, it remains highly uncertain if Russia will be allowed to develop its energy business in Myanmar.
Image credit: Vadim Savitsky, mil.ru
It’s a tale of all great powers indeed. The rich country in terms of natural resources is the power play centre of the big powers. Be the the Gulf region and he energy rich Central Asian states. But this article is an excellent piece of research, rather an eye opener for y he Sotherton Asian and the South East Asian region…..
Thank you, Barshan Karmakar.