Russia-backed Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic on the one hand, and the Western-backed Ukraine on the other hand, keep simulating the peaceful settlement of the Donbass conflict. The two sides recently pulled out troops from two villages along the frontline, but it is highly uncertain if the so called Steinmeier Formula – signed by Ukraine, Russia, European mediators and the Donbass republics – will be implemented any time soon.
The formula says the Donbass region, currently controlled by the Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic, should get a special autonomous status under Ukrainian law immediately after the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe recognizes the outcome of local elections. However, Ukrainian officials claim that the elections will be held only after all Russian troops are withdrawn, pro-Russian military units disbanded and control of the border is handed back to Ukraine.
Russia, on the other hand, accuses Ukraine of sabotaging the peace process, while Kiev blames the Russia-backed forces of shelling the Ukrainian army positions, which apparently prevented the pull back of the Ukrainian forces from the front line in the past. Such accusations and misinterpretations of the peace agreements have been going on for the past five years. In 2014 and 2015, Russia stopped its proxies in the middle of their military offensives against forces loyal to the government in Kiev and made them sign the Minsk Accords. Ever since, the region has been stuck in endless positional warfare, as the West-backed Ukraine and the Russia-backed self-proclaimed Donbass republics failed to fully implement any points of the Minsk Agreements.
Former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, who is the official representative of Ukraine to the Trilateral Contact Group at the peace talks on the Donbass in Minsk, said that the Minsk Accords can be implemented only after the Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic are dissolved. Ukraine also requires that the self-proclaimed republics leave the Russian ruble zone, which they entered in 2017 after Kiev imposed economic blockade on the Donbass. Russia has said many times it would reject such demands because they run counter to the 2015 Minsk agreements, which serve as the basis for the talks.
Reportedly, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky should meet on December 9 in Paris to discuss a “new series of steps to put in place the Minsk Agreements”. The problem, however, is the fact that the Minsk Accords have not been implemented to this day. Russia insists that Ukraine should negotiate directly with the Donbass republics, which is something that Kiev resolutely opposes as it is aware that that would mean the de facto recognition of those entities. Ukraine sees the Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic leaderships merely as Russia’s proxies.
In the meantime, Ukraine is trying to reach consensus over the Steinmeier Formula, as various nationalist and neo-Nazi groups strongly oppose the agreement. They recently put forward an ultimatum to President Volodymyr Zelensky, demanding cancellation of the plans on the settlement of the situation in the Donbass, protection the country’s sovereignty, as well as to prevent the loss of territorial integrity of the state. Even though Zelensky won the presidential election with 73 percent of the votes in the second round, Ukrainian war veterans, nationalist and neo-Nazi groups, as well as football hooligans, still present a powerful force in the country. In order to resolve the Donbass conflict, Zelensky will first need to find a compromise with these groups.
“We will find ways for a nation-wide civil resistance, and we will make the authorities do what the nation wants and demands,” wrote Andrey Biletsky, the leader of a radical nationalist organization National Corps, on his Telegram page.
Presently, Zelensky is not showing the ability, or political will, to confront radical nationalists at home. Instead, he is trying to flirt with them by visiting the frontline and wearing military uniform. Also, some senior members of his political party Servant of the People are assuring Ukrainian nationalists that it will take years before the Steinmeier Formula is implemented. In the meantime, the conflict will go on, and people of the Donbass will keep living in unrecognized republics stuck between reintegration into Ukraine and full integration into Russian Federation.
Image credit: Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung