Russian elites do not seem to be ready for a transformation of the country’s political system. Parliamentary elections, held from 17 to 19 September, clearly demonstrate that the Kremlin aims to preserve the status quo on the Russian political scene for the foreseeable future.
According to Russia’s Central Election Commission, the United Russia party – whose formal chairman is former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, although in reality it is current Russian President Vladimir Putin who operates as the party’s de facto leader – won more than 300 of the 450 seats in the State Duma. The so-called systemic opposition slightly improved its position. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation saw its share increase from 13 percent of the vote in 2016 to 19 percent, while United Russia lost some ground but still came out as the winner. The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, led by controversial political figure Vladimir Zhirinovsky, won 7,5 percent, and the A Just Russia party was supported by 7,42 percent of the Russian voters. The New People party, formed in 2020 to appeal to the urban middle class, has also cleared the five percent threshold. It is believed that the New People will play the role of the “systemic liberals” in the new Duma, while the so-called non-systemic opposition groups will remain marginalized.
There is no anonymity of the voter, which gives the government an additional ground for pressure and intimidation
Although the official results are expected to be announced on September 24, the initial results, published hours after the polling stations were closed, showed that United Russia had won only 38.57 percent of the vote, which is 16 percent less than in 2016. It is online voting, however, that assured the pro-Putin party’s victory, which raised concerns among the opposition parties that the elections might have been rigged. Indeed, the Central Election Commission was extremely slow to release data from online voting in Moscow. Results from e-voting have been delayed by 18 hours and, out of the 1.9 million Muscovites who the authorities claim have voted online, some 307.000 later changed their minds and decided to vote again. Also, United Russia lost ground in its strongholds in Siberia and the Far East – where online voting was unavailable – while the party simultaneously ended up with a clean sweep of seats in Moscow, where it has traditionally performed poorly. That is why the Communist Party announced that it would not recognize the results of the online voting in the Russian capital.
According to the Russian United Labor Front – a non-systemic left-wing opposition party – online voting is part of the manipulation of the election process.
“Such a system is beneficial for the ruling class. There are no ‘inconvenient’ observers, and the voting process itself, as well as the publication of the results, is completely controlled by the authorities. Moreover, there is no anonymity of the voter, which gives the government an additional ground for pressure and intimidation.”
It was rather surprising that Putin, who apparently doesn’t use a cell phone and avoids using technology in general, voted online. Russian media showed the self-isolated Russian President voting electronically on September 17. However, the watch on his wrist clearly showed September 10, which suggests that he might have voted a week before the election started. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov claims that his chief “does not set the date on his watch and does not pay attention to it” and assures that the Russian leader did not abuse the online vote.
Although the Kremlin propagandists tend to portray Putin’s Russia as a “bastion of conservatism and traditional values”, in reality this country seems to be setting trends for the very future of the global election process, where electronic voting could completely replace traditional ballot casting. Most Russians already refuse to take part in such a charade, which is why the total turnout was only around 45 percent. Even members of United Russia did not show much enthusiasm while celebrating the election victory, and their formal leader Dmitry Medvedev did not show up at the party headquarters on the election night after apparently falling ill. But there is a man who has every reason to celebrate. It is Ramzan Kadyrov, the Head of the Chechen Republic. According to the official results, he won 99.6 percent in the polls, which makes him the biggest winner of the elections.
Another winner is Mikhail Degtyaryov, the Kremlin-appointed Governor of the Khabarovsk region, where large anti-government protests erupted in 2020 after the arrest of Governor Sergei Furgal. Degtyaryov reportedly received 57 percent of the vote, and critics claim that the election was marred by widespread allegations of irregularities.
Potential winners could also be the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. Its residents, who have Russian passports, were allowed to vote for the first time in Russian national elections. Local authorities organized no fewer than 825 bus routes and 12 train routes to Russia’s neighboring Rostov region so that the holders of the Russian passport can cast their ballots, although the Donbass residents also had an option to vote online. Such moves signal that the self-proclaimed republics will continue to gradually integrate into the Russian Federation.
Finally, the major winner is the ruling elite within the Kremlin. Russian leaders have demonstrated that they still do not plan any radical changes of the nation’s political system, although they will likely keep pushing for digitalization of the election process. Thus, guided democracy is expected to dominate the Russian political life almost certainly until the 2024 presidential election, if not until 2036 when Putin is expected to finally step down.
Image credit: Arnaud Jaegers