Leaders of Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan recently agreed to deepen their countries’ integrations into the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Although the member states of this supranational organization have fairly ambitious plans, primarily in terms of enlargement and cooperation with other global structures, it remains highly uncertain whether they will be able to implement most of their strategies and goals.
The Eurasian Union was created on the basis of the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. The agreement on the creation of the EAEU was signed on May 29, 2014 in the capital of Kazakhstan, Astana, now Nur-Sultan. Armenia and Kyrgyzstan joined the EAEU in 2015. That year, the enlargement process stalled. For the first time, the status of observer state was granted to Moldova in May 2018. Ever since, there has not been much progress in terms of attracting new potential member states. However, on December 11, Uzbekistan was granted observer status at the Eurasian Economic Union, as well as Cuba even though the Caribbean country is located neither in Europe nor in Asia. The EAEU leaders held their annual meeting online because of the Covid-19 pandemic and they reportedly also agreed to start working on the agreement on a free-trade zone between the Eurasian Union and Iran.
During the summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that it is essential for the EAEU to strengthen cooperation with other countries and regional integration associations.
“We are primarily talking about connecting the activities of the EAEU with the implementation of the well-known Chinese Belt and Road Initiative,” Putin said, addressing the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, pointing out that the integration within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union is “attracting more and more interest from a number of countries in the world.”
Reportedly, about 40 nations have expressed a desire to develop trade and economic cooperation with the EAEU. However, one of the main problems for this Russia-dominated entity is the very slow progress towards its stated goals. In addition, from the Kremlin’s perspective, some of the EAEU member states are “energy vampires”, since their leaders constantly demand that Moscow provide cheap energy to their countries. For instance, in May, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan insisted on a unit gas price for all EAEU members, which is something that Putin rejected, saying that “for now, gas prices should be based on market conditions.” It is a long way to the creation of the single market with a single budget and a single tax system, which is Russia’s main condition for the unit gas price. In the meantime, Minsk and Yerevan will likely have to agree on Russia’s terms regarding the energy trade. Also, they will have to find a way out to resolve their domestic problems.
Belarus has been facing political turmoil ever since it held the controversial presidential election on August 9, and Armenia was at war with Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, which means that the positions of the two former Soviet republics have weakened. Also, the absence of a common border with the countries of the EAEU creates significant economic difficulties for Armenia.
Following the parliamentary elections held on October 4, Kyrgyzstan also entered a state of political instability and it remains to be seen if the new country’s leadership will continue implementing the Eurasian agenda. It is also unclear whether Moldova will preserve its observer state status. The Eastern European country’s outgoing President Igor Dodon said at the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council that “most Moldovans hope for further cooperation and closer cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union”. However, given that Moldova’s new leader, Maia Sandu, is pushing for closer ties with the European Union, it is not improbable that Chisinau will eventually break ties with the Moscow-led organization. Indeed, the EU is Moldova’s first trading partner and the first investor in the country, accounting for 66 percent of total Moldovan exports and 55 percent of total trade.
Kazakhstan, on the other hand, has benefited from its membership in the Eurasian Union. According to the country’s leader, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the trade between Kazakhstan and the EAEU countries has grown by 33 percent, including exports, which have increased by 25 percent. The inflow of investments from the EAEU nations increased to six percent, and the number of joint ventures has doubled and reached 14 thousand. It is worth mentioning that energy-rich Kazakhstan, besides Russia, is the only EAEU member-state that is not facing any unrest.
Many Western critics of the Eurasian Economic Union have argued that this entity is primarily a political project that aims to entrench Russia’s hegemony over the former Soviet republics. However, all the EAEU member states have equal representation within the union’s governing body. Still, Russia’s leadership position remains unquestioned. As the EAEU honorary chairman Nursultan Nazarbayev said, Russia is the core of Eurasian integration.
Indeed, as Alexander Lukashenko emphasized, without Russia there can be no integration in the post-Soviet space. Although Moscow is expected to maintain its influence in the region and move towards the goal of establishing a free-trade zone, the process of transforming the Eurasian Union into a unified political block will likely be very slow and full of obstacles. Finally, if the Russian Federation eventually faces turmoil and instability, the very existence of the EAEU will be questionable.
Image credit www.kremlin.ru