With age it becomes harder to make behavioral changes. Vladimir Putin, who will turn 72 this year, seems to be finding it tough to adjust to new realities.
Unwilling (or unable) to make any crucial changes to the way the Kremlin oligarchy operates, the Russian leader is likely aiming to preserve the status quo in Russia for as long as possible. “Never change a losing team” used to be his modus operandi. But will he finally get rid of some members of his “old guard”?
Following the March 2024 presidential election, in which he won 87 percent of the vote, on May 7 Putin was sworn in for another term as Russian President. In line with the constitution, the government of Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin resigned at the start of the new presidential term. In the coming days, Putin is expected to appoint a new one.
Although a technocrat, Mishustin, who was appointed in January 2020 as Prime Minister, is expected to continue his role; it remains uncertain whether Putin’s close allies – foreign and defense ministers Sergey Lavrov and Sergy Shoigu – will retain their posts. Despite the catastrophic results they have had over the past several years, so far Putin has not had the political will (or courage) to fire them.
Lavrov, 74, is the longest-serving foreign minister since the fall of the Soviet Union, having been in the post since 2004. What makes the Moscow-born half-Armenian, whose father’s last name was Kalantaryan, so special and irreplaceable?
As a result of Lavrov’s diplomacy, Russia lost its influence not only in the post-Soviet space, but also in other parts of the world. The fact that only six out of 14 former Soviet republic’s leaders agreed to attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow on May 9 perfectly illustrates Russia’s position in what it sees as its “near abroad.”
Following Putin’s adventure in Ukraine, Russia was effectively cut off from the Balkans – a region that is now firmly in the Western zone of influence. Also, as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as the Kremlin’s passive approach regarding the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, Moscow’s nominal ally Armenia has dramatically distanced itself from Russia.
The Kremlin is now having a hard time preserving the remnants of its influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia – two strategically important regions that have traditionally been in Russia’s geopolitical orbit. If Putin gives Lavrov “another chance” to pursue his failed diplomacy, it will be a clear indication that the Russian ruling elite is satisfied with the geopolitical defeats Moscow has been suffering for decades.
The same applies to Sergey Shoigu, who is seen as one of the most corrupt Russian officials. Despite suffering colossal losses in Ukraine, and not achieving any of the goals of the so-called special military operation there, Shoigu continues to head the Russian Defense Ministry. Although he has never been in the military, that does not prevent the-69-year-old ethnic Tuvan from staggering under a load of medals like a Soviet general.
But since his deputy Timur Ivanov has recently been arrested over bribery-taking charges, it is not unlikely that Putin will have to replace Shoigu with a less compromised figure. Alternatively, if Shoigu remains in charge of the Russian Defense Ministry, it will mean the Kremlin is satisfied with the way he is fighting the war in Ukraine, even though over the past two years Russia has not had any strategic victories in the Eastern European nation.
But even if Putin fires both Shoigu and Lavrov, that is unlikely to have a serious impact on the way the Russian Federation operates. The fish rots from the head. In order to change Russia, Putin would have to fire himself. Russian Patriarch Kirill, however, claims that a huge number of Russians see the head of state “not only as a successful politician, but also as a very smart, kind and warm-hearted person.”
In reality, Putin has successfully eliminated all of his major political opponents, and is trying to portray himself as a “good Tsar” who is allegedly surrounded by “bad boyars” (members of the highest rank of the Russian feudal aristocracies). How successful he really was will be known only after the war in Ukraine.
Kirill is right about one thing, though: Putin is smart. A stupid person could not have held continuous positions as president or prime minister since 1999. Catherine the Great, who was undoubtedly highly intelligent, reigned over Russia for 34 years. If Putin stays in power until 2036, which is what the Russian constitution allows, he will become the longest-serving Russian leader.
But one day he will have to go, one way or another. After he finally leaves the Kremlin, it will take many decades for Russia to recover from Putin’s “successful, very kind, and warm-hearted” rule.
Image: No Putin. No war. by rajatonvimma /// VJ Group Random Doctors
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