Amid the Ukraine war, and the upcoming energy crisis, the last thing Brussels seems to care about is the enlargement of the European Union. Yet several Balkan countries, having spent decades in the EU’s “eternal waiting room”, still hope to join the bloc in the foreseeable future.
In order to preserve the region in its geopolitical orbit, the European Union regularly holds summits with the so-called Western Balkan nations. On December 6, the first-ever summit between the EU and local leaders took place in the Balkans, rather than in Western Europe. However, everything about relations between Brussels and the EU hopefuls is rather uncertain and unclear.
Firstly, the very term Western Balkans does not make much sense. Geographically, the real Western Balkan countries are the EU members Slovenia and Croatia, rather than Albania and North Macedonia. Nations that the EU sees as part of the Western Balkans are all located either in central or in southern parts of the Balkan Peninsula.
Secondly, it is unclear how many countries there are in the Western Balkans. From Brussels’ perspective, the Western Balkan nations are Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Kosovo. But for Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia, rather than an independent state. Besides the two Balkan countries, five EU members – Spain, Romania, Greece, Slovakia and Cyprus – have also never recognized Kosovo’s 2008 unilaterally declared independence. That, however, does not prevent the authorities in Pristina to attends the EU – Western Balkan summits. The very fact that Serbia, despite Kosovo’s presence, also participates in such events, clearly indicates that Belgrade has already implicitly recognized secession of its own territory.
Prior to the Tirana summit, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said that “nobody from Serbia will participate in the conference” given that the EU failed to condemn Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti for appointing a Minister for Communities and Returns who was not from the main Belgrade-backed Kosovo Serb party. Such a rhetoric was obviously meant to impress the Serbian audience, and to create an illusion that Belgrade is an autonomous actor in the regional arena. In reality, the fact that Vucic quickly changed his mind, and decided to travel to Tirana, suggests that Serbia does not have much choice but to continue pursuing its pro-EU political course.
“Serbia will be at the summit, and the president of Serbia has no other way but to come to the summit. I tell you this with conviction. The opposite would be a disaster for Serbia,” said Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama on December 5.
The problem for Serbia, as well as for other so-called Western Balkan countries, is that there is no guarantee that they will join the European Union anytime soon, if at all. Although the EU officials claim that enlargement policy is among their top three priorities, Brussels continues pushing the Balkan nations to integrate not into the EU, but into the Common Regional Market – a project that apparently aims to increase the attractiveness and competitiveness of the region and to bring it closer to the EU markets. The United States, on the other hand, is pushing the so-called Western Balkans into the Open Balkan Initiative – an economic and political zone whose current members are Serbia, Albania and North Macedonia. Both options seem to represents a substitute for the EU membership.
Quite aware of that, both the EU and the Balkan leaders continue simulating European integration processes. The Tirana summit is yet another simulation of Brussels’ alleged desire to focus on the EU enlargement. In reality, people living in the Balkans will be part of the EU only if they move there. Since incomes in the so-called Western Balkan countries are around 30 percent of EU average, it is not surprising that the region has already been heavily depopulated by brain drain. In other words, hundreds of thousands of young people move to EU countries to pursue further education or work. If such a tendency continues, sooner or later most, if not all Serbs, Albanians, Bosniaks and other Balkan peoples will live in the EU, while their countries may remain out of the bloc.
The EU, for its part, wants to make sure that migrants from the Middle East, North Africa, and other parts of the world, do not use the Western Balkans route to illegally enter the European Union. Reports suggest that the migrant issue was on the agenda in Tirana. Indeed, from Brussel’s perspective, the Balkan nations that are out of the bloc could serve as a parking lot for migrants, while the Balkan natives are heartly welcome to the EU countries.
Thus, the EU – Western Balkans summit helps the European Union to achieve some of its geopolitical goals, while it does not give the Balkan countries even a timeline for EU accession. As a result, the region is expected to remain stuck in a gray zone at least until the end of the Ukraine war.
Image: Council of the EU