“Russia without Putin!” the liberal, pro-Western opposition crowds chanted repeatedly as they marched through Russian cities over the years. Their dream, to live in a country that will not be ruled by Vladimir Putin, will eventually come true. But what will life in a “dePutinized” Russia look like?
Putin has been effectively ruling Russia for 23 years. If his plan to stay in office until 2036 succeeds, he will surpass Josef Stalin, who was the longest serving leader of Russia since Peter the Great. At this point, biology is the only limiting factor for Putin’s power, although Russia’s defeat in Ukraine will have an impact on his rule.
The level of repression in Russia is expected to grow as long as the so-called special military operation in Ukraine goes on. The authorities will be preventing both anti-war and pro-war protests, in an attempt to portray Putin as a “moderate leader”. At the same time, the Kremlin propagandists will continue developing a cult of personality around the Russian President, trying to unite the country around Putin.
Such a strategy could work if the Russian military made significant gains in Ukraine. But if Russia continues suffering humiliating defeats in the Eastern European country, sooner or later large segments of Russian society will start blaming the Kremlin for a military fiasco in Ukraine.
At first, they will blame “incompetent generals” and “corrupt officials”, as well as Putin’s close allies, but not the President himself. They will still see Putin as a “good tsar” who has been surrounded by “bad boyars” – members of a privileged Russian ruling class. But as Western sanctions start seriously hurting ordinary Russians, Putin’s approval ratings will begin to fall.
As Western sanctions start seriously hurting ordinary Russians, Putin’s approval ratings will begin to fall.
That, however, does not necessarily mean that the Russian leader will be overthrown. Given that pro-Western opposition has been suppressed, and that Putin firmly controls the election process, he cannot lose the presidential election scheduled for 2024, even if Russia signs a de facto capitulation in Ukraine. Since he does not have any serious political opponents, Putin will easily secure his fifth term in the Kremlin.
Although Russia has a history of “palace coups”, such an action does not seem realistic as long as the war in Ukraine goes on. From the Western perspective, preserving Putin in power can guarantee Russia’s defeat in Ukraine. Unwilling to take any resolute steps, and surrounded by people who still have close ties with the West, Putin is currently the least bad option that the United States and its allies have in Russia.
After the war, Russia, as a defeated country, will long for change. Putin, on the other hand, will seek to preserve the status quo. And that is when he will come into conflict with his “boyars”. The Russian security apparatus will be heavily demoralized as a result of the Ukrainian fiasco and will no longer have any interest in protecting Putin at any cost. At the same time, separatist movements in Russia – from the North Caucasus to the Ural Mountains – will grow, as the federal government in Moscow, exhausted by the sanctions, will not be able to continue buying stability in the turbulent regions.
New, post-Putin authorities will have to bear consequences of the Russian defeat in Ukraine.
As a result, Putin will have to go, one way or another. Just like Boris Yeltsin had to go on December 31, 1999. But that will not be the end of the Russian agony. It will be the beginning of “dePutinization” of Russia and quite possibly the start of the breakup of the Russian Federation. New, post-Putin authorities will have to bear consequences of the Russian defeat in Ukraine. In order to return to the global arena, a future Russian government will have to make series of painful concessions to the West.
The United States and its allies will demand that Moscow hands over Putin, as well as other Russian military and political leaders, to a tribunal where they will be prosecuted for war crimes. Russian Armed Forces will be demilitarized as a result of war and the West will look for a way to make Russia a nuclear-weapon-free zone. It is entirely possible that NATO and Ukrainian troops will eventually have to occupy certain territories of what is currently Russia.
As Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Adviser to the United States’ President Jimmy Carter, reportedly once said, as long as 500 billion dollars owned by Russia’s elite lies in American banks, there is no way for Russia to use its nuclear potential. Or at least not against the US. But if the Soviet Union collapsed without any nuclear incidents, it is very probable that Putin’s Russia will experience the very same fate.
A new Russia will be decentralized, and those republics that remain part of the country will have very weak links with Moscow and strong ties with foreign powers that will act as their handlers. Foreign corporations that manage to establish control over Russian energy resources will be the biggest winners of the war in Ukraine. The Russian population will see itself as a victim, although through a new education system generations of Russians will have to learn how their country committed notorious crimes against the Ukrainians.
Russia will have to pay reparations to the neighboring country, which will have an additional impact on the remnants of the nation’s economy. Finally, hatred between the Russians and the Ukrainians will make the two countries permanently divided, and ruled by foreign powers.
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