Ramzan Kadyrov, the Kremlin-installed warlord of Chechnya, is playing the role of a “hawk” in the Russian political establishment. His pro-war rhetoric has inspired increasing debate in Moscow about the scale of his ambitions.
Unlike other Russian officials – who seem to look for a way to de facto capitulate to Ukraine, although in such a way that would allow Moscow to save face – the Chechen leader apparently wants Russia to fight until victory. That, however, does not mean that Kadyrov will ever get the opportunity to implement his ideas, seize Kyiv and “de-Nazify” Ukraine.
On September 11, Kadyrov openly criticized the Russian military leadership for a complete fiasco in the Khrakiv region in Eastern Ukraine.
“They have made mistakes and I think they will draw the necessary conclusions”, Kadyrov said, pointing out that “if today or tomorrow no changes in strategy are made”, he will be forced to speak with the leadership of the Defense Ministry and the leadership of the country to “explain the real situation on the ground to them”.
It is Russian tradition to believe that there is a “good” tsar who does not know what his “evil” boyars – members of the highest rank of the feudal nobility – are doing. President Vladimir Putin, apparently, does not know what is really going on in Ukraine, Joseph Stalin “did not know” about Gulag prisons, and Nicholas II, the last tsar of Russia, “did not know” about the real situation on the ground prior to the October Revolution in 1917.
Thus, Kadyrov’s statement perfectly fits into the Russian political reality where a lie has become the norm a long time ago.
The problem, however, is that no policy makers outside Russia are buying such lies anymore. They are designed exclusively for the Russian population, in order to preserve the illusion that Russia, despite catastrophic defeats on the ground, is “winning” the war in Ukraine.
The very fact that not a single Russian official, including Putin and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, has been fired after the Kharkiv debacle indicates that the Kremlin did not “draw the necessary conclusions”. Kadyrov, as an experienced politician, is quite aware of that. That is why he is seeking to improve his own position within the existing Russian political system, rather than play the role of a “revolutionary force”.
Kadyrov’s statement perfectly fits into the Russian political reality where a lie has become the norm
Rumors are flying that Chechnya’s long-time ruler will soon be transferring to the leadership of Rosgvardia, Russia’s National Guard. In March, Kadyrov was promoted to the rank of Rosgvardia lieutenant-general. That was the time when he claimed that “Russia will make no concessions in Ukraine”. Ever since, Moscow has made numerous concessions to Kyiv. For instance, the Kremlin has signed a deal that allows Ukraine to freely export its grain and potentially get NATO weapons via the Black Sea route. Moreover, after Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky threatened to end peace talks with Moscow, Russia refused to hold a trial of captured Azov Regiment fighters, and abandoned its plans to create another “people’s republic” in the Kherson region of Ukraine.
Now that the Russian forces have suffered a humiliating defeat in the Kharkiv region, Moscow is apparently preparing to defend its positions in the Donbass. Chechen fighters have returned to the region from vacation. Unlike them, many forcefully mobilized conscripts from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic did not have the opportunity to go home for more than six months.
In spite of that, Kadyrov recently announced an “interesting surprise” for Ukrainian forces in the Donbass, expressing confidence that the defeated Russian troops will be able to return and recapture Ukrainian cities, as well as continue the offensive in other areas.
“There are already our people there, guys specially trained for this work, up to 10,000 of our fighters are ready to set off, and in the near future we will reach Odesa”, Kadyrov stressed.
Over the past six months Russia has clearly demonstrated that it cannot seize the village of Marinka in the Donbass, let alone Odesa. Kadyrov’s comments are there to give the Russian audience false hope that all the goals of the so-called special military operation in Ukraine will be achieved.
In reality, Kadyrov is likely using the war in Ukraine to prepare his forces within Rosgvardia (the Kadyrovtsy) for a potential turbulence in the Russian Federation, including Chechnya. The Kadyrovtsy are officially part of the National Guard, although they remain loyal to Kadyrov rather than to the Kremlin. Various reports suggest that they are not prepared and not equipped in accordance with the military goals. They were reportedly involved in killing Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Not surprising, since Kadyrov himself allegedly killed a Russian soldier at the age of 16. According to some reports, the Kadyrovtsy have spent most of the time in Ukraine sitting back and doing nothing at all, leaving the difficult fighting to others. Indeed, it is rather questionable how motivated they are to fight in the Eastern European country, hundreds of miles from Chechnya.
It is entirely possible that Kadyrov wants his troops to get first-hand battlefield experience to prepare for another war in Chechnya. If Russia suffers a major defeat in Ukraine, and sanctions prevent Moscow from providing further subsidies to the region, a new conflict in the North Caucasus will almost certainly become reality.
Meanwhile, Kadyrov will likely seek to strengthen his position not only in Chechnya, but also in the Russian political arena. Moving the Chechen leader to the National Guard would be unlikely to destabilize Chechnya itself, given that Kadyrov would surely retain powerful influence over local affairs. It could destabilize Rosgvardia, though. Expanding the involvement of the Kadyrovtsy within Rosgvardia would have a severe impact on the organization whose current head is Viktor Zolotov, a Putin loyalist whose grandson studies in England.
Some political circles close to the Russian elite would prefer to see Kadyrov as someone whose task would be to develop relations with Muslim countries, or possibly even as a governor of new territories. But if Russia gets defeated in Ukraine, there will be no new territories. In that case, Moscow will have a hard time preserving control over Chechnya, a turbulent region that will likely start to seek more autonomy, if not independence, from the Russian Federation.
Image: Пресс-служба Полномочного представителя Президента России в Северо-Кавказском федеральном округе
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