“We demonstrated weakness, and the weak get beaten”, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in September 2004 after Chechen terrorists, under the command of Shamil Basayev, occupied a school in the town of Beslan in North Ossetia, taking more than 1,100 hostages, including 777 children. Twenty years later, Putin’s Russia continues demonstrating weakness, proving that it still cannot provide its citizens with the most basic need – security.
The devastating attack on the Crocus City Hall outside Moscow on March 22 clearly showed that the Russian people cannot feel safe in their own country. According to the official version of the event, gunmen in combat fatigues opened fire and detonated explosives at the concert hall, killing at least 133 visitors. Although the Islamic State group, also known as ISIS, reportedly claimed responsibility for the deadly assault, the Kremlin seems to be attempting to connect the terror attack to the war in Ukraine.
After Putin, addressing the nation, said that “some people on the Ukrainian side had prepared to let the attackers cross the border from Russia”, Russia began indirectly accusing Kyiv of orchestrating the terror attack. Pro-government media claim that Ukraine, as well as British and American secret services, are behind the tragedy in Moscow.
For the Kremlin, the ISIS involvement in the attack represents a “Western version” of events. Quite aware that some Russian political and military circles might seek to use the mass shooting at the Crocus City Hall to escalate the war in Ukraine, Western leaders were quick to send a clear warning to the Kremlin.
“It would be cynical and counterproductive for Russia to use this context to try and turn it against Ukraine”, said French President Emmanuel Macron, warning Moscow against exploiting the attack by blaming it on Kyiv.
The United States also reacted, pointing out that “Ukraine had nothing to do with the deadly concert attack”, while Kyiv firmly denied Russian accusations of having ties with the attackers. On the other hand, the Ukraine-backed Freedom of Russia Legion – a paramilitary unit of Russian citizens who oppose Putin – accused the Russian leader of committing the terrorist attack himself.
Given that the war in Ukraine has been going on for two years, it would make very little sense for the Kremlin to arrange a false flag operation (or allow the attack to happen) just to use it as a pretext to push mass-mobilization, which is what some pundits argue. Ukrainian attacks on Belgorod, as well as on other Russian cities, could serve perfectly as an excuse for a mobilization.
But since Russia does not react to Ukrainian attacks, and it has turned a blind eye to the series of humiliations its military suffered since February 2024, it is unlikely that the Kremlin would stage a massacre in Moscow in order to achieve some of its goals in Ukraine.
Instead, Russia seems to be resorting to damage control following the tragedy in Moscow. Earlier this month, the United States warned about a terrorist attack possibly targeting “large gatherings” in the Russian capital. The authorities in Moscow did not react. Now, pro-Kremlin media and analysts are speculating that Washington could be the mastermind of the March 22 tragedy. But even if it is, it remains unclear why the Russian security services ignored the American warnings and failed to prevent the terror attack.
Putin is now trying to pin the blame on Kyiv, although he accepted the narrative of ISIS being the chief executioner of the Moscow terror attack. In his view, the gunmen are “radical Islamists”, but his rhetoric suggests that he sees the Western-backed Ukraine as having a hand in the attack.
The problem for Putin, however, is the fact the Western world has already adopted the idea of ISIS, rather than Ukraine, being responsible for the terror attack. That is why his attempts to assign blame to Kyiv will not be accepted in the West. As a result, Putin’s room for maneuver remains fairly limited, which puts him in a very difficult position.
Russian society expects him to react quickly and punish those who committed the criminal act. The security forces have already arrested four citizens of Tajikistan identified as Dalerdzhon Mirzoyev, Saidakrami Rachabalizoda, Shamsidin Fariduni, and Mukhammadsobir Faizov. They were accused of carrying out an assault and will undoubtedly be found guilty – whether they really are or not. But that will unlikely resolve the Kremlin’s problems.
If the Russian authorities continue accusing Ukraine of being behind the Moscow attack and the Kremlin does not take decisive action against Kyiv, it will look weak in the eyes of its population. If, however, Russia adopts the narrative of ISIS being solely responsible for the crime, its military will not be able to seriously respond.
After suffering a major defeat in Iraq and Syria in 2019, ISIS managed to preserve control only over scattered pockets of land in the area. Therefore, Russia cannot launch a large-scale operation against the organization that exists merely in the form of insurgent cells. Even if rumors of ISIS being run by the United States and Israel were correct, the Kremlin would be unlikely to take any measures against the two nations as they can inflict serious harm on Russia.
Despite a strong anti-Tajik sentiment that came as a result of the terror attack, Russia cannot take any action against Tajikistan either, given that the Central Asian nation remains Moscow’s loyal ally in the region. That is why Putin does not have much choice but to continue blaming Ukraine for the concert hall attack. From the Kremlin’s perspective, the Eastern European nation represents an ideal sacrificial lamb. But policy makers in Moscow are unlikely to raise the stakes and take steps that could lead to a serious escalation of the Ukraine war.
Instead, Kremlin spin-doctors will almost certainly focus on preserving stability at home, trying to ease tensions and prevent the growing anti-immigrant attitudes and incidents in Russia. As Aras Agalarov, the Russian-Azerbaijani oligarch – who is also the owner of the Moscow Crocus City Hall – said in 2019, “Russia cannot do without migrants”. But opinion polls suggest that the majority of Russians want their government to limit immigration into the Russian Federation.
Putin will, therefore, have a hard time balancing the interests of his oligarchs with his voters’ wishes and expectations. Consequently, he will continue demonstrating weakness. And the weak get beaten.
Image: Vardaitis Pavardaitis
