When Donald Trump entered the 2016 presidential circus, it almost seemed like a joke, and his poll results reflected it, taking a nosedive almost immediately after his initial announcement. Those mocking his candidacy spoke too quickly, though, because Trump just rocketed to the top of the GOP field in an alarmingly short period of time, despite a series of horrific public statements. He’s appealing to a base somewhere, and the country is facing a nonzero possibility that he may become a GOP candidate, after weeks of public belief that he was primarily a liability for the party and nothing more.
This is, bluntly, terrifying. In a presidential field crowded with hopefuls who each seem more terrible than the last, it’s hard to categorise any one as “the worst,” but Trump is definitely pushing the envelope. His utterly bizarre policy proposals and comments in public illustrate not just the depths of his bigotry, but his confidence that such bigotry actively appeals to Americans—and the strategy appears to be a winning one, despite all expectations.
Trump actively doesn’t care what the public thinks of him, his sheer contempt for minorities in America dripping from almost every self-satisfied public statement. He’s not just condescending in public, either—just this week, he sent a vicious letter to Michael Whan, commissioner of the Ladies Professional Golf Association, with respect to the organisation’s comments about his public statements. The organisation is scheduled to play a major tournament on a Trump-owned course, and commented that it didn’t plan to change venues, though it didn’t endorse his comments on immigration and other matters. Trump’s response savaged Whan in addition to making a number of snarky comments about his real estate holdings and performance in the polls; and he doesn’t seem to mind that it’s gone public, possibly even enjoying the evidence of the depths of his inability to communicate with any degree of courtesy.
The statement almost guaranteed to land the candidate in hot water was his commentary on immigration, in which he declared that immigrants were bringing ‘drugs, guns, and rapists’ to the United States. He’s since doubled down on the rhetoric, even as the GOP has attempted to distance itself from him, knowing full well that the Latino vote will be critical in 2016, and that a Trump win in the primary could be a disaster for the party—he may appeal to disaffected and angry Republicans, but he can’t command the vote of an entire nation, especially in minority-majority states like California.
The Republican party is already struggling to find a candidate with broad appeal, no doubt hoping to unite its fragmented base in the weeks leading up to the primaries to select a candidate with a reasonable chance of dominating the national vote as Republicans face the alternative of Hillary Clinton, the most likely Democratic candidate (though Bernie Sanders is beginning to surface more and more in the public eye). With a field of generally poor candidates, though, the party is having a difficult time, especially with rogues like Trump poisoning the Republican image and alienating voters who might otherwise be intrigued by the party’s more moderate reworking of itself.
Perhaps most disturbing in an electoral culture run entirely on money, Trump has a number of advantages that set him aside from every other Republican candidate. One is the sheer volume of his personal wealth—he can afford to run an entire presidential campaign without actually fundraising a penny. This allows him to careen through a campaign without being accountable to supporters or to the GOP, which typically provides financial backing and consulting services to high-performing candidates. Effectively, he can run under the Republican banner, without actually having to play by the party’s rules—such as the subtle shift in immigration rhetoric and recommended policy changes designed to appeal to moderate Latinos.
Moreover, Trump has another disturbing advantage—one in fact demonstrated by this very piece. His commentary is so outrageous that he’s captured hours of free media attention, making him into a household name in a nation where brand recognition is everything. Rather than spending millions on major ad buys, Trump can make himself the subject of the story, relegating his opponents to the commercial breaks. It’s a brilliant campaign strategy that’s likely to save him millions as the campaign progresses, as if he needed to conserve his campaign coffers.
His ridiculous public statements may be calculated, at least in part. Clearly Trump genuinely believes in the rhetoric he promotes, but he’s also an extremely canny planner and commentator—it’s impossible to rise to his level of prominence and power without being a very intelligent strategist. Thus, Trump is well aware that for every half-cocked comment, the media will generate hours of commentary, clips, and more, seeking to drum up interest in an election that’s still 16 months away. The US is a nation absolutely obsessed with electoral politics, but also one fascinated by drama, and Trump serves up both with relish.
Brand recognition is also key in the United States. Many don’t necessarily know what Trump stands for, aren’t aware of the depths of his public statements, or haven’t stopped to rigorously interrogate those statements, but they certainly know his name. When it comes to voting in next spring’s primaries, Trump’s name will stand out from the Republican field, and it could just be enough to snag him the nomination if he holds onto his lead and manages his campaign well. He’s a candidate who could get on next November’s ballot solely by virtue of screaming loud enough.
Outsiders puzzled by the truly bizarre and troubling world of politics in the United States have an example of the sheer level of strangeness embodied by the nation’s political culture in the form of Donald Trump. This is a country with painfully prolonged campaigns where candidates have ample opportunities to trip up, but they also have the ability to consolidate their power, using a long con to sway voters. For Trump, it may just work—especially if the nation’s ongoing problems with voting irregularities and vulnerability at voting machines can’t be resolved by 2016. This seems like a highly probable possibility, given the tangled relationship of funding and political support between politicians and firms like Diebold, a major manufacturer of electronic voting machines. This is an election that might be won not just through rhetoric, but also through hacking, a profound testimony to the real truth of the ‘American way.’