For the Kremlin, Russian nationalists, as well as anti-systemic communists, represent a far greater threat than pro-Western liberals. Ahead of the presidential election, scheduled for March 17, Russian authorities will undoubtedly intensify repression against anyone who criticizes the way the country’s leadership is conducting the so-called special military operation in Ukraine.
After Russia launched the full-scale invasion of the Eastern European nation in February 2022, hundreds, if not thousands, of Russian intellectuals who opposed the war were forced to flee their homeland. But some of them – mostly oligarchs, celebrities, and other members of the Kremlin-close elite – were allowed to return to Russia, despite their anti-war activism.
Those who stayed abroad – mostly middle- and upper-middle class Russians – organized dozens of rallies against Russian President Vladimir Putin all over the world. On January 21, the exiled pro-Western liberal opposition held another anti-Putin action in cities around the globe – from Sydney, European capitals, to San Francisco. “Russia without Putin” was their major slogan, although they also came out to support jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, who was sentenced to 19 years in prison on charges of “extremism”.
Meanwhile, in Russia, in the Republic of Bashkortostan, hundreds of ethnic Bashkirs, a majority-Muslim people of Turkish descent, participated in an unsanctioned demonstration – despite the fact that the authorities rarely tolerate any protest activities – condemning the sentencing of a local political figure, Fail Alsynov, to four years is in prison for “inciting ethnic hatred”. Although the Kremlin reportedly fears that ethnic clashes in Russia could eventually become reality, at this point it does not dare to take any radical actions against “problematic” national minorities and migrant groups. Instead, in many so-called ethnic-republics (such as Chechnya, Dagestan, and Ingushetia, among others) Russian laws exist merely on paper, while in reality those regions live according to their own rules. That is how Putin buys “stability” in Russia’s restive “ethnic republics”.
But when it comes to Russian nationalists and the so-called patriotic communists (not to be confused with the Kremlin-approved Communist Party of the Russian Federation), the Kremlin has taken a harsh approach. Even though these groups, unlike pro-Western liberals, support Putin’s war on Ukraine, for the ruling elite they seem to be the public enemy number one. As Margarita Simonyan, RT editor-in-chief, once said, “after the first honest elections, the fascists will win and they will hang us”. That is likely one of the reasons why Putin and the Russian oligarchy do not seem to tolerate any competition and alternative in the “patriotic” segment of the country’s political life.
It is, therefore, not surprising that Sergei Udaltsov, a Russian pro-war activist and leader of the Left Front, a group of political parties that oppose Putin and are affiliated with certain factions of the Communist Party, was recently detained and charged with “justifying terrorism” in social media posts. Moreover, Russia’s parliament is expected to soon adopt a law allowing for the confiscation of money, valuables and other property from those deemed to spread “deliberately false information” about Moscow’s military actions. The proposed measure would apply to those publicly inciting “extremist activities”.
In Russia, anyone who openly criticizes Putin and Russia’s Defense Ministry can be charged with inciting extremism. Last year, the authorities arrested Igor Girkin, also known as Igor Strelkov – a prominent Russian nationalist who accuses Putin and the army top brass of not pursuing the Ukraine war effectively enough – and charged him with “inciting extremist activity”. On January 25, at 2 PM (14:00 military time), in the courtroom 404, he will almost certainly be found guilty and is likely to have to spend up to five years in prison.
There is a significant dose of symbolism when it comes to Girkin’s trial. January 25 is an important date in Strelkov’s life, given that on January 25, 2016, he formed a movement that criticized both the Kremlin and the liberal opposition. The sentencing begins at 14:00, a number that Girkin’s supporters link with the year of 2014, which is when he started the war in the Donbass. Coincidentally or not, the court will find him guilty in the courtroom 404 – a reference to the internet’s “404 Page Not Found” error; ever since February 2022, pro-Kremlin propagandists have been calling Ukraine a “country 404”, suggesting that it does not exist, or that it represents an “error country”. Does that mean that Strelkov, from their perspective, is an “error political figure” who will eventually die in prison?
In an interview to the Russian media Baza in December 2023, he said his greatest fear is that he could be “amnestied” the same way as Yevgeny Prigozhin – the Wagner Group leader who led the failed mutiny in June 2023 and was later “pardoned” by Putin, but was killed in a plane crash on August 23, 2023. Since Putin does not forgive what he sees as betrayal, he was unlikely to have been happy when Girkin, a former officer of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), called him a “useless coward” in the summer of 2023.
“The only useful thing Putin could do ‘before the curtain falls’ is to ensure a transfer of power to someone truly capable and responsible”, Strelkov said before he was arrested.
Girkin even attempted to run for president but was prevented from registering, unlike the anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin who got the green light from the Kremlin to participate in the election charade. For the Russian ruling elite, having Nadezhdin – who is often on Russian state-controlled federal TV channels – as a major “liberal” opposition candidate is perhaps the most efficient way to create an illusion that the upcoming vote its “free, fair, and democratic”.
But as Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in August 2023, the Russian presidential poll “is not really democracy, but costly bureaucracy”. He also made a prediction that his boss will be re-elected “with more than 90 percent of the vote.”
Indeed, now that all of major Putin’s opponents have either been arrested or exiled, he will undoubtedly win the election and stay in power at least until 2029. Unless he dies in the meantime.
Image: Dom kobb
