The Normandy Four (Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France) diplomats have yet again failed to reach a compromise over the Donbass conflict that erupted in 2014. After their meeting in Berlin last week, they agreed to keep their regular summits, while pro-Kremlin propagandists started spreading theories of Russia’s possible annexation of the Donbass.
In the German capital, the Normandy Four representatives were not able to find ways to implement deals that were made in Minsk in 2014 and 2015. They could not agree on a sustainable ceasefire either. For the Donbass population, positional warfare and constant shelling became an everyday reality in 2015 when leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France, as well as representatives of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic signed a peace accord in the Belarusian capital. The document never stopped the war, although none of the sides involved in this conflict have attempted to start a major military offensive ever since.
The war in the Donbass turned into a low-scale conflict of regular army units under a single command. There are no longer poorly organized volunteer battalions on the West-backed Ukrainian side, while the Russia-backed Donbass republics now have “people’s militias” that are superior to many European regular armed forces. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry, on the other hand, reportedly intends to equip military forces in Donbass with Javelins, an American anti-tank missile, as Ukrainian military personnel are actively training on the use of the weapon. That, however, does not mean the Ukrainian army will start a major offensive against the Donbass republics any time soon, nor that Ukraine and Russia will fight a full-scale war. Over the past six years, analysts and propagandists on both sides have announced numerous conflict escalations, while Ukrainian and the Donbass officials exchanged several empty threats. In reality, nothing significant happened.
Since the Berlin summit failed, Ukrainian media has already started fear mongering about “an imminent Russian attack” and “Moscow’s annexation of the Donbass”. It is worth noting that some Russian analysts also announced that, according to the new Russian constitution, the Kremlin can now legally incorporate the Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s into Russian Federation. For instance, Russian political analyst Vladimir Karasyov said that Article 67 of the Russian constitution gives the Donbass republics a green light to join Russian Federation. The article states that Russia is “the legal successor of the Soviet Union and its territory, as well as in respect of membership in international organizations, their bodies, participation in international treaties and in respect of obligations stipulated by international treaties and Soviet assets outside the Russian Federation.” Even though it is quite questionable if this clause of the new Russian constitution can be interpreted in such a way that the Kremlin has legal right to annex parts of former Soviet republics, there is no doubt that Moscow is mighty enough to do that. Still, if Russia failed to recognize the independence of the Donbass republics, declared in 2014, why would it hurry now annex these territories? Also, to this day Moscow never incorporated Abkhazia and South Ossetia into Russian Federation, even though it recognized their independence from Georgia.
When it comes to the Donbass, the Kremlin treats that energy-rich region mainly as an instrument against Ukraine, while the West treats Ukraine as an instrument against Russia. Since Moscow de facto controls most coal mines in the Donbass, it is unlikely that it will return the region to Ukraine, but it is also very improbable that Russia will recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed republics, or even annex them, unless Ukraine attempts to recapture the territory or if the Kremlin leaders and their “dear Western partners” make deals regarding the future status of the Donbass.
Even though, at this point, such a scenario does not seem very likely, Alexander Borodai, the chairman of the Union of Donbass Volunteers, recently said that the Donbass republic would de jure become part of Russia “very soon” as they are already de facto Russian regions. It is worth remembering, however, that Borodai, the native Muscovite who was the first Prime Minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic, said in December last year that “the war in the Donbass would soon get back to an active phase”. It has been seven months since his warmongering statement, and the active phase of the conflict is not there yet, which mean that pro-Kremlin stooges should not be taken seriously.
Image credit: spoilt.exile