Russia keeps pressuring Armenia – Moscow’s nominal ally – to make significant concessions to its archenemy Azerbaijan, months after the two countries ended a 44-day war for control over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Yerevan already lost control over the significant portion of the territory and, if it fully implements the Kremlin-brokered peace deal, Armenia may also lose sovereignty over the south of the country, near the border with Iran.
The Kremlin remains the main arbiter in the Caucasus, although it will have to deal with the growing Turkish influence in Azerbaijan. On January 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, in their first meeting since a peace agreement halted six weeks of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh in November 2020. It is worth noting that, a day before the meeting, Putin spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron. The two leaders reportedly discussed the upcoming summit in Moscow. Although Russia has been under Western sanctions for the past seven years, European officials, primarily Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, call Putin prior to almost all of his important meetings, be it with Pashinyan and Aliyev, or with Ukraine’s present and former presidents Volodymyr Zelensky and Petro Poroshenko, or even with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Kremlin propagandists, on the other hand, tend to portray Russia as a bastion of sovereignty, although it remains unclear why their leader has to justify Moscow’s actions to his “dear Western partners”.
Indeed, the West has not been directly involved in this conflict where Russia and Turkey are seen as the major actors. During the war, Ankara strongly backed Azerbaijan, while the Kremlin refused to provide assistance to its formal ally. On the other hand, former Armenian Ambassador to the Vatican, Mikael Minasyan, claims that 26 days before the war in Nagorno-Karabakh started, the Armenian authorities received a secret document from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which contained a warning about the upcoming conflict, as well as a proposal to request help from the allies in a preventive regime.
“Why didn’t the Armenian authorities turn to the CSTO for help?”, he asks. According to the official Russian narrative, Pashinyan was backed by the US billionaire George Soros and was pressured by the West to undermine the authority of the Russia-dominated military alliance. However, if such accusations are true, it remains unclear why Moscow did not prevent Pashinyan from coming to power in 2018.
Pashinyan is now seen as a “traitor” at home, since he signed a de facto capitulation on November 9. However, the Kremlin does not seem to be interested in his political departure, at least until the peace deal is fully implemented. According to the peace agreement, Azerbaijan will be able to cross to its exclave Nakhchivan through Armenian territory and roads will be secured by the Russian Security Service, which will undermine remnants of Yerevan’s sovereignty in the south of the country.
Some reports suggest that Putin, Pashinyan and Aliyev discussed how to unblock all economic and transport links in the region. Construction of the rail and road links was reportedly also on the agenda.
“The peace deal resulted in stopping bloodshed, stabilizing the situation and achieving a sustainable ceasefire. It is time now to discuss the next steps in the peace agreement”, said the Russian President.
Whatever the next steps are, they will unlikely be in Yerevan’s favor. Armenia, as a defeated country, is expected to make some serious concessions, primarily when it comes to the Nakhchivan corridor. That is one of the reasons why the Armenian opposition staged mass protests right after the peace deal was signed. Although Pashinyan’s approval ratings declined, he is likely aware that the opposition is not very trustworthy either, which is why the protests did not lead to his overthrow. On the other hand, some Armenian officials have already started leaving the state apparatus because of disagreements with Pashinyan, looking for a place in a post-Pashinyan Armenia. All this has already happened during the fall of former country’s leader Serzh Sargsyan, who was overthrown by Pashinyan in 2018.
The Armenian opposition still holds rallies pushing for a regime change. However, as the recent history in Belarus, Russia and France shows, permanent rallies do not always lead to tangible political results. Thus, without strong support by major global powers, anti-Pashinyan forces will be unlikely to manage to overthrow the Armenian Prime Minister.
Given that Armenia is deeply in Russia’s geopolitical orbit, Pashinyan’s political fate will depend on the Kremlin. Russia’s role as a regional arbiter, as well as the planned restoration of the transport corridors, is likely aimed at consolidating Moscow’s long-term positions in the light of the new military-political situation on the ground. Finally, for Russia, energy business with Azerbaijan seems to have priority over its nominal alliance with Armenia.
Image credit: Yerevantsi
