War keeps knocking on Russia’s door. The Kremlin is desperately trying to avoid a direct military confrontation with Ukraine, while Kiev seems determined to restore its sovereignty over the energy-rich Donbass region in the east of the country, currently controlled by Russian proxies.
On October 26, Ukrainian Armed Forces captured the village of Staromaryevka, located in the so-called grey zone, or no man’s land. Commander of the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Colonel Dmitry Bryzhinsky, who led the operation, called the seizure a “humanitarian action designed to help the local population”. Indeed, for the local population, including people who hold Russian citizenship, “a horrible end is better than endless horror”. They have been living under constant shelling for the past six years, and even though 37 out of 180 residents of the village are citizens of the Russian Federation, Moscow did not make any effort to protect them. Instead, the Russian Foreign Ministry called on its partners in the Normandy Format and the OSCE to encourage Kiev to stop “violent actions”. Quite aware that they cannot rely on Russia’s help, residents of the neighboring town of Telmanovo, which is still controlled by the Moscow-backed forces, reportedly refuse to talk to journalists on camera because they do not want to have any problems once the Ukrainian Army enters the town.
For the local population, including people who hold Russian citizenship, “a horrible end is better than endless horror”.
In the past, the Kremlin promised numerous times to protect the rights of the Russian citizens in the Donbass. The case of Staromaryevka has yet again clearly showed Russia’s passivity and carelessness. Ukraine, on the other hand, is not rushing to start a major military offensive, but is gradually establishing control over the “gray zone”, waiting to see Moscow’s reaction. The Ukrainian Army, strongly backed by the West, feels very self-confident. After capturing Staromaryevka, Ukrainian forces used Turkish-made Bayraktar drones for the first time against Russia’s proxies in the Donbass, and destroyed a Russian-made howitzer. Russia’s reaction was rather laughable. The Russian Investigative Committee opened a criminal case after Ukrainian security forces “wounded civilians from a drone in the Donbass.” In addition, the Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia, said that Ukrainian forces’ game with drones “may lead to consequences which the Ukrainian side may not even imagine.”
Such empty threats demonstrate Russian impotence, and undoubtedly send a bad message not only to roughly 600.000 Russian passport holders in Eastern Ukraine, but to all Russian allies around the world – namely in Syria, Armenia and Tajikistan.
Still, at this point, it does not seem very probable that Moscow will completely abandon the Donbass. The Kremlin may not care about the fate of the Russian citizens in the energy-rich region, but it certainly cares about the Donbass coal mines. Now that the world is facing an energy crisis, and coal prices are skyrocketing, it is unlikely that Russia will allow Ukraine to restore complete control over the region. Even if the Ukrainian Armed Forces manage to capture more territory, the Kremlin will likely make sure coal mines remain under the control of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic.
It is entirely possible that Moscow is trying to provoke an energy crisis in Ukraine.
It is unlikely to be purely coincidence that, right after new round of clashes in the Donbass, Moscow stopped coal supplies to Ukraine and Gazprom reduced gas transit through Ukraine to almost half of the booked amount. It is entirely possible that Moscow is trying to provoke an energy crisis in Ukraine. Kiev is heavily dependent on Russian energy, namely coal, gas and even electricity. Before the Donbass war erupted in 2014, Ukraine was a significant coal producer. Now that the vast majority of the Donbass coal mines are effectively controlled by Russia and its proxies on the ground, Kiev is forced to purchase its own coal from Moscow. The Kremlin reportedly insists that Ukraine signs a deal on coal supplies directly with the self-proclaimed Donbass republics, which is something that Kiev refuses to do, given that such a move would mean Ukraine’s de facto recognition of those entities.
From an energy perspective, the Donbass is too important for the Kremlin, although it is still highly uncertain whether Moscow has any long-term plans for the region. Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin could not explain how Russia plans to protect its interests in Ukraine. Putin’s speech at the annual Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi was full of empty phrases, but it became obvious that there is still no unified policy regarding Ukraine in the Kremlin. Quite aware of that, Kiev is testing how far it can go.
“We observe attempts to carry out provocations, elicit some reaction from the militia and drag Russia into some kind of combat action”, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, talking about Ukrainian actions in the Donbass.
Unlike Russian officials who keep “expressing grave concerns” over various moves from Ukraine, Ukrainian leaders sound superior and more determined to fight. On October 29, Oleksiy Arestovych, the representative of the Ukrainian delegation in the contact group on the Donbass and adviser to the head of the Office of the President, said that Ukraine will “fire missiles at the Russian Federation, in case the Kremlin starts a full-scale war against the Eastern European country”.
At this point, such a scenario does not seem very realistic, but recent Ukrainian actions on the battlefield, as well as harsh pro-war rhetoric, clearly indicate that Kiev is not afraid of Moscow. And fortune favors the bold.
Image credit: www.kremlin.ru
