Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria could become another point of confrontation between Russia and the West. The former Soviet Republic will hold early parliamentary elections on February 24 and if pro-Western forces come to power, relations between Moscow and Chisinau are expected to further deteriorate.
Maia Sandu, a former Moldovan Prime Minister who is in favor of closer ties with the European Union, as well as Moldova’s reunification with Romania, won the presidential election on November 15, 2020. Given that the Eastern European country is a parliamentary republic, presidential powers there are rather limited. However, if her Party of Action and Solidarity wins the upcoming parliamentary vote, Sandu will be able to consolidate her power and possibly change the country’s geopolitical orientation.
Moldova has been experiencing a frozen conflict over Transnistria – officially called the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) – since 1992, which means that Chisinau can hardly count on joining NATO as long as it does not control its own borders. Although Sandu is pushing for Moldova’s membership in the European Union, it is very unlikely that any European countries that are still out of the EU will join the bloc any time soon. Still, the West could use Moldova as another instrument against its archenemy – Russia.
Moscow, on the other hand, has its own trump card in the region. Transnistria – a self-proclaimed nation sandwiched between Moldova in the West and Ukraine in the East – hosts some 1,500 Russian troops, including 402 Russian military personnel who are part of the peacekeeping forces who were deployed to the region following the conflict between Moldova and Transnistria in 1992. Besides Russians, 492 Transnistrian, 355 Moldovan and ten military observers from Ukraine serve in the security zone of the Moldovan-Transnistrian conflict. The remaining number of Russian soldiers in the PMR consists of the remnants of the 14th Army, now the Operational Group of Russian Forces in Transnistria.
Sandu firmly insists on the complete withdrawal of the Russian troops from Transnistria. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently said that Sandu’s proposal will “hardly help the settlement process” and Moscow will “hardly be able to accept such fairly irresponsible demands”. That, however, does not mean that Moldova, backed by Ukraine and NATO-member Romania, cannot force Russian troops out of the PMR if the frozen conflict eventually escalates.
Since the PMR does not border Russia, in the event of hostilities the only way for Moscow to supply its troops in the region would be through Ukraine. Given that relations between Moscow and Kiev have been tense since 2014, it is extremely improbable that Russia would start a war against Ukraine in order to get access to Transnistria. Still, there are some indications that both sides are preparing for a potential conflict. Servicemen of the Operational Group of Russian Forces in Transnistria recently conducted a lesson of courage for the local branch of Young Army Cadets National Movement – a youth organization supported and funded by the Government of Russia through the Ministry of Defense of Russia. Also, the Ministry of State Security of the Pridnestrovian Moldovan Republic recently conducted combat training of the Cossacks-border guards. On the other hand, in November 2020, Romania held joint military drills with US forces at Mihail Kogalniceanu base and Capu Midia shooting range. American troops brought two mobile rocket system HIMARS from Germany while Romanians used three LAROM multiple rocket launch systems. Forbes magazine called this exercise a “rocket surprise” for Russia since it is aimed squarely at Russian military forces deployed in Crimea.
Still, a war in Transnistria could be the very last option. It is more likely that Moldova and Ukraine will eventually impose an economic blockade on the region, in an attempt to get certain concessions from Moscow. It is no coincidence that, shortly after her inauguration, on 24 December 2020, Maia Sandu welcomed the Romanian President in Moldova’s capital Chisinau, while In January she met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In the event of a joint Moldovan-Ukrainian blockade, the entire population of Transnistria, which is roughly around 450.000 people, would suffer enormously. It is estimated that half of the PMR residents have Russian citizenship, while others hold Moldovan, Romanian, as well as unrecognized Transnistrian passports.
It is worth noting that the new Moldovan leader said in December 2020 that she is ready to visit Russia and discuss the frozen conflict with the country’s leadership. Sooner or later, the two sides will have to talk, but the future of the region will depend on the overall relations between Russia and the West, rather than on ties between Moscow and Chisinau. In any case, Russia’s room for maneuver in Transnistria remains very limited.
