Over the years, Russian propaganda has been spreading rumors of the alleged Western intention to abandon Ukraine, as well as of an “imminent collapse” of the Eastern European country. But after the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, launched in the summer of 2023, Kyiv and the West seem to have adopted the same rhetoric, which is why “Ukraine is running out of weapons and soldiers” has become the dominant media narrative.
In reality, the situation on the ground is far from critical for Ukraine. Even though Kyiv is moving to a defensive strategy and is unlikely to launch any large-scale offensive military operations in 2024, its armed forces continue to inflict serious losses on Russia’s military and civilian infrastructure.
On January 25, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, Ukraine shot down a Russian military Ilyushin Il-76 transport plane, killing all 74 people on board including 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POW). Although it remains unclear if Ukrainian POWs were really aboard, the fact that the plane was downed over the Russian Belgorod region near the border with Ukraine clearly indicates that Russia, almost two years after it invaded the neighboring country, cannot control its own airspace.
More importantly, on the same day, Ukraine attacked an oil refinery deep inside Russian territory, causing a huge fire. For the Kremlin, that action represents a far greater humiliation than Ukrainian downing of the military Ilyushin Il-76 plane, given that the facility is owned by Russia’s energy giant Rosneft – whose CEO is Igor Sechin, an oligarch and a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The following day, on January 26, Ukraine attacked a group of drone pilots at a Russian military training ground in the Donbass, reportedly killing a large number of unmanned aerial vehicle operators. It was another serious loss that Russia suffered in just two days. But none of these Ukrainian actions had a decisive impact on the current war dynamic.
Presently, Russia has the initiative on the battlefield, but it does not seem to have capacity to make any major gains. Despite reports of an alleged Ukrainian artillery deficit, and a lack of manpower, Russian forces recently had to withdraw from the center of the Bohdanivka village in the Donbass. Thus, even though Ukraine’s Western backers might have reduced military aid to Kyiv, that does not mean that the Eastern European country will have to surrender to Russia.
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Offensive on Chasiv Yar: on the northern flank, the Russian Armed Forces have withdrawn from the center of Bohdanivka, but retain control over the northeastern outskirts of the village. On the southern flank, the Russian forces were able to advance to the outskirts of… pic.twitter.com/9ZgTrQz78Z
— Rybar Force (@rybar_force) January 26, 2024
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, his country has 880,000 people in its army, surpassing the figure of over 600,000 Russian soldiers who are currently fighting in Ukraine. Interestingly enough, when Russia launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it did so with “only” around 200,000 troops, but it managed to capture significant portions of Ukrainian territory.
With 600,000 fighters, Russia still cannot seize the town of Avdiivka in the Donbass, let alone achieve some of its strategic military goals.
Russian troops in Ukraine likely have a task to preserve the status quo on the ground, until Ukraine prepares its newly mobilized men for combat missions and gets more weapons from the West. In the meantime, the Kremlin is very unlikely to launch any large-scale offensive operations, although it will undoubtedly continue implementing its well-known suicidal frontal assault military tactics, aiming to storm heavily fortified, and strategically insignificant, Ukrainian towns and villages.
In other words, Moscow will give Ukraine enough time to get ready to launch its own offensive, possible in 2025.
While waiting, Russia will almost certainly continue striking Ukrainian cities, and (indirectly) helping its opponent to improve its air defense capabilities. The fact that Greece approved the transfer of outdated air defense missiles and anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine clearly suggests that the West does not intend to abandon Kyiv, regardless of the situation in the Middle East, at the US-Mexico border, or with its internal problems.
Moreover, Ukraine’s decision to start building four nuclear reactors at the Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plant in the west of the country could mean that Kyiv feels confident enough that its air defense is already strong enough, and that it can protect the facility from potential Russian attacks. Alternatively, it is not impossible that the Ukrainian leadership got “security guarantees” from the Kremlin that Russia will not prevent Kyiv from building new nuclear reactors.
The major reason why Ukraine wants to expand the Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plant is to compensate for the loss of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – the largest nuclear facility in Europe – that has been under Russian control since 2022. Could that mean that Kyiv has de facto given up on its ambitions to restore Ukraine’s sovereignty over the Zaporizhzhia region?
One thing is for sure: the Eastern European country will continue preparing for a long war, and the outcome of the conflict remains highly uncertain. But as long as it knows that it can count on Western support, Ukraine will keep fighting.
Image: President.gov.ua
