Ukraine is fighting a war, while Russia is conducting a “special military operation” in the Eastern European country. Kyiv’s goal is crystal clear – liberty from the Russian occupation – while Moscow’s political goals are very fluid. Who is really winning the Russo-Ukrainian conflict?
Russia’s defeat in Kyiv represents a serious humiliation for Moscow. After failing to capture the Ukrainian capital, Russian military retreated from northern Ukraine and started focusing on the Donbass. At the same time, the Kremlin’s propagandists started justifying the Russian retreat from Kyiv, claiming that Russia apparently never even attempted to seize the city. Such a narrative sounds like Aesop’s Fable, The Fox and the Grapes.
Now that Russia has effectively lost control over significant portions of Ukraine’s territory, both sides’ forces are reportedly preparing for the battle for the Donbass. It is believed that Moscow aims to create a land corridor from the Donbass to Crimea. However, in order to achieve such an ambitious goal, Russian troops would first have to establish full control over Mariupol – a strategically important port city that the Kremlin-backed self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic’s forces have been storming for more than a month.
Given the current dynamics at the front line, it is entirely possible that Mariupol will be completely in Russian hands by the end of April. After that, unless Moscow and Kyiv sign a peace or ceasefire deal, Russia is expected to continue what the country’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently described as “the liberation of Donbass”.
Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine will continue holding peace talks, although the chances of reaching a deal are rather slim. From the Kremlin’s perspective, any agreement with Ukraine will be seen as Russia’s de facto capitulation, given that Moscow has not achieved any of its military and political goals in the Eastern European country. Ukraine has not been “denazified”, although it is rather unclear what that term really means. If Russia sees “denazification” as the “de-Ukrainization” of the country, then the Kremlin is very far from achieving its goal.
If Russia sees “denazification” as the “de-Ukrainization” of the country, then the Kremlin is very far from achieving its goal.
From a military perspective, Ukrainian Armed Forces have undoubtedly suffered huge losses on the ground, but they have not been destroyed. Thus, the Kremlin has not managed to “demilitarize” Ukraine. More importantly, it is Russia that recently suffered a humiliating defeat in Kyiv. Besides, on April 1 Ukraine clearly demonstrated that it is not afraid of Russia. According to reports, Ukrainian helicopters attacked a fuel depot on the territory of the Russian Federation in the city of Belgorod. It is almost certain that Ukrainian forces will continue conducting such air strikes, while Russia will continue striking Ukrainian cities. In other words, the war will become even more brutal.
The two sides have already started accusing each other of genocide. As Western leaders condemned images of what are believed to be dead Ukrainian civilians in a town of Bucha near Kyiv, the country’s President Volodymyr Zelensky described the tragedy as genocide. Still, he stressed that Ukraine will continue holding talks with Russia. Moscow, on the other hand, is reportedly preparing to officially recognize the genocide of Russian people in the Donbass, although it will continue holding peace summits with Ukraine.
The United States’ President Joe Biden has called Russian leader Vladimir Putin a war criminal. In the past, he called Putin a killer, but that did not prevent him from holding several summits with the Russian President. Putin, on the other hand, called Ukrainian leaders a band of drug addicts and neo-Nazis, and now reports suggest that he is ready to meet with Zelensky “in the near future” in Istanbul.
Thus, a harsh rhetoric will continue dominating the public discourse, and Moscow and Kyiv will keep simulating peace talks. In reality, Ukraine will never recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea, nor a unilaterally declared independence of Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic, which means that it will be the Kremlin, rather than Kyiv, that will have to make significant compromises and concessions. Otherwise, Russia risks fighting a long war in Ukraine, which is something that its sanctions-hit economy is unlikely to be able to afford.
Quite aware that Russia’s position in the international arena will never be the same, many Russian celebrities have already started leaving the country. Putin’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov called some of those people “great patriots”, claiming that he does not consider them enemies of the state. The head of Russia’s Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, criticized Peskov, claiming that Putin’s spokesman has “reassessed the very concept of patriotism”. Indeed, a discord within the Russian elite is about to intensify.
Sooner or later, Russia will have to make a decision – to continue fighting until it achieves all the goals of its “special military operation”, or to agree on Ukraine’s terms and sign a peace deal. Kyiv has already made a choice: it will fight until the end and will make no compromise over its territorial integrity. The ball is now in the Russian court.
Image credit: mvs.gov.ua
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