“Russia is preparing an offensive against Ukraine. Putin wants more land grab. It is a matter of time before Ukraine starts a military offensive against Russia-backed Donbass. Kiev wants to expel the Russian-speaking population from the region.”
Propagandists and politicians on both sides have exchanged such accusations hundreds of times since the Minsk Agreements, signed in the Belarusian capital in 2015, effectively ending a “hot phase” of war in the Donbass. Ever since, the coal-rich region in the east of Ukraine has been living in a state of neither peace nor war. Russia established two proxy-states – the Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic – where hundreds of thousands of residents already have Russian citizenship.
Although the Minsk peace deal calls for a truce, in reality shelling and sporadic firing never stopped. Indeed, sooner or later a “hot war” will resume – unless the Kremlin voluntarily returns the territory to Ukraine – since the status quo is unsustainable. However, many analysts, journalists and politicians proved to be completely unreliable because none of their predictions of a conflict escalation came true. The frequent announcements of the military offensive sound like Aesop’s Fable of The Boy Who Cried Wolf.
“Putin will attack! He will invade Ukraine because wants more land”, shout Ukrainian propagandists, not explaining why the Russian President did not use the opportunity he had in 2014 and seize not just Crimea but the whole southeast of Ukraine from Kharkov right next to the Russian border to Odessa on the Black Sea. Why is the situation more favorable for sanction-hit Russia now than it was seven years ago?
“Ukraine is moving troops to the Donbass! They are backed by NATO and will attack because they want to provoke Russia”, claim Russian propagandists, who have announced dozens of “Ukrainian offensives” over the past six years and were wrong every time.
From the Russian perspective, Moscow does not have any reasons to start a war against Ukraine. It already controls coal mines in the Donbass and capturing energy-poor territories in the southeast would just be an additional expense for the Russian central budget. That is why Kremlin officials, allies and propagandists often point out that Russia does not want to “feed” Ukraine. Moreover, any attempts to capture more land would result in severe Western sanctions against Moscow. For instance, the West could freeze the assets of Russian oligarchs in Western and offshore banks and suspend Russian banks from SWIFT.
From the Ukrainian perspective, launching an offensive during bad weather does not guarantee that they would achieve even the very basic operational military goals, let alone a major military success. Also, if Ukrainian forces try to capture the Donbass without previously getting firm assurances that Russia will not intervene, Kiev could suffer another defeat, although that does not mean that Russian proxies would capture more territory. Backed by Russia, they could simply defend the territory they already control.
Putin recently said that the Kremlin will “never turn its back on the Donbass, no matter what”. His statement, however, should not be taken too seriously. It is worth remembering that in 2014 he promised to “protect the people of the Donbass”, yet they still have to hide in their shelters due to everyday shelling.
Indeed, the situation in the Donbass is heating up again. There are reports of Ukraine moving heavy weaponry to the front-line, while the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic is hiring new soldiers. At the same time, both Russia and Ukraine are sharpening their rhetoric. Russian President reportedly said that any Ukrainian attempts to capture the region by force would have “grave consequences for Ukraine statehood”. On the other hand, Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov called Putin “a killer and a mad dog”. All that, however, does not necessarily mean that the conflict will escalate. At least for the time being.
At this point, the Minsk peace process seems to be dead. Given that the Belarusian President, Alexander Lukashenko, has been sanctioned by Western powers following the disputed presidential election that took place last year, it is very improbable that leaders of Russia and Ukraine, as well as European mediators, will meet in the Belarusian capital any time soon. They could, however, stage online meetings or meet in a Western city to continue simulating the peace process, though that would be unlikely to change the situation on the ground.
The conflict in the Donbass will end once the United States, as the major global power and Ukraine’s main backer, and Russia make a final arrangement on the future of the region. A potential military offensive could come as a result of such a deal. As Franklin D Roosevelt said, “In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it does, you can bet it was planned that way.”
Image credit: Unknown Author (CC Licence)
