The Russo-Ukrainian war will have severe consequences not only for the two countries, but for the entirety of Europe and possibly other parts of the world. The United States and its allies are rapidly burning bridges with Moscow by imposing various sanctions on the Russian Federation.
The war that broke out on February 24 has already resulted in the final decoupling between Russia and the West. All the masks have fallen, and it is crystal clear now that what rages on in Ukraine is not just a fierce military confrontation between the two neighboring countries, but a new Cold War between Moscow and Washington. In other words, Russia and the United States are fighting a proxy war on the Ukrainian territory.
Russia and the United States are fighting a proxy war on the Ukrainian territory.
Sanctions that the Western countries have imposed – and are yet to impose – on the Russian Federation will have an impact not only on the lives of the Russian people but on most, if not all, European nations. Once Russia is completely expelled from SWIFT, its economy will suffer tremendously but, in large parts of Europe, blackouts could become the norm.
Without Russian gas and oil, European industries will have to dramatically reduce production, which will result in the decline in the standard of living on the continent. Moreover, sanctions on Russia and Belarus – two significant producers of fertilizers – will have an impact on food prices around the globe. Some regions, particularly in the Middle East, could even face food shortages.
Without permission to fly westward, Russian airlines will be in the same position as their Belarusian colleagues – they will have to redirect their flying routes eastward. At the same time, the price of flight tickets will skyrocket, given that Russia retaliated by closing its airspace to flights from several European countries.
Another problem for Moscow is that its semi-exclave Kaliningrad, situated on the Baltic coast between Lithuania and Poland, could eventually be de facto blocked. Moreover, if Turkey decides to close the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to Russian ships, it will be very difficult for Moscow to supply its armed forces in Syria.
In the mid-term, Russia will face a huge economic crisis. Anti-war protests will be unlikely to manage to prevent Russian President Vladimir Putin from conducting its war operation in Ukraine, given that the Russian opposition lacks leadership and coordination on the ground. Over the past few years, Russian authorities have shut down several Western-sponsored non-governmental organizations, and the famous Kremlin critic Alexey Navalny has been in jail for a year. Thus, at this point, there is no political force in Russia that can pose a serious threat to Putin.
What can, however, jeopardize Putin’s position is the Russian elite. It is no secret that many Russian oligarchs hold their assets in Western and offshore banks, and that children and grandchildren of several Russian officials live and study in the West. Once the oligarchs’ assets are frozen, parts of the Russian elite could try to openly sabotage Putin’s military operation in Ukraine.
From the Russian perspective, it is necessary to win the war in Ukraine as soon as possible. The United States will, however, make sure that Russia gets “its own Vietnam” in the Eastern European country. The longer Russian troops keep attempting to capture Kiev and other major Ukrainian cities, the more weapons the Ukrainian army will receive from NATO countries. Eventually, the Russians may be forced to start withdrawing. Such a scenario would encourage the Ukrainians to continue resisting.
At this point, Ukraine has nothing to lose. The country has already been devastated. Large segments of the nation’s infrastructure have been destroyed. Some places could become completely uninhabitable. It will take decades for the former Soviet republic to recover. But without energy, such a mission will be virtually impossible.
If Russia wins, Ukraine will become a “buffer zone” in a new Cold War between the Kremlin and Washington. The country will be under the Russian occupation for the foreseeable future, and Russian forces will likely have to fight against future Ukrainian guerrilla. At the same time, the sanction-hit Russian budget will have to feed millions of people, many of whom will not be loyal to the new authorities.
If Russia does not win, current borders between Ukraine and Belarus, and Ukraine and the Russian Federation, will likely become a new Iron Curtain. Moscow may not be completely isolated from the rest of the world, but it will certainly be isolated from the West, which means that its foreign-policy vector will move eastward. In the future Russo-Chinese axis, the Kremlin will play a role of the junior partner.
What will be the fate of Ukraine? If it becomes part of the Russian sphere of influence, the Ukrainian population will have to pass through a painful process of what Putin called “denazification”. The only good thing for the people living in the Russian-controlled territory is that they are expected to have electricity, while those that will remain on the other side of a new Iron Curtain will be unlikely to have access to the Russian gas, coal and oil, which will have a serious impact on their everyday lives.
One thing is for sure: this war will reshape Europe, and will lead to a radical transformation of the global energy system.
Image credits: dsns.gov.ua and Leonhard Lenz
