The Ukraine war will almost certainly last throughout 2023. The very nature of the conflict suggests that it will end only when Russia completely withdraws its troops from the Eastern European country. But will that happen anytime soon?
Unless the West, for whatever reason, decides to stop providing Ukraine with weapons, Russia has zero chances of winning the war. The Ukrainian army has already become one of the strongest militaries in Europe. It has destroyed the myth of Russian military strength. It became quite obvious that the emperor has no clothes.
Corrupt to the core, the Russian state cannot expect any victories against Ukraine, which is firmly backed by the entire Western civilization.
Prior to the war, Ukraine was equally corrupt. Its economy was dominated by oligarchs who also played very important roles in the country’s political life. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed many things. It is the West, namely the United States, that pulls the strings in Kyiv now. As a result, the country has been completely transformed, and represents a serious threat for the Russian Federation.
In the past, Ukraine was afraid of Russia. But not anymore. Now it is Russia that fears Ukraine receiving long-range missiles that could reach Moscow. If the conflict escalates, sooner or later Ukraine will strike military targets near the Russian capital. But even if the Ukrainian Armed Forces eventually hit the Kremlin, Russia’s response will be rather limited.
Russian political leadership has never been determined to win the war. For them, what is happening in Ukraine is not a war, but a “special military operation”. As a result, the Russian military continues to suffer humiliating defeats – from Kyiv in the north, to Kherson in the south. Such developments will undoubtedly continue in 2023.
By spring, despite having a rather limited number of troops in Ukraine, Russia will likely attempt to recapture some territories it lost over the past ten months. It could even try open a “second front” against Ukraine, be it on the border with Belarus, or elsewhere in northern, or northwestern Ukraine. That, however, does not mean that the Russian actions will be successful. Their military adventures could result in new defeats, given that the Russian forces do not have capacity for any large-scale military offensives. But Russian President Vladimir Putin does not seem to value human life too much. Although Russian officials claim that the West intends to fight until the last Ukrainian, in reality it is the Kremlin that seems to fight until the last Russian.
Quite aware of that, hundreds of thousands of Russians will continue leaving their country in 2023. Indeed, not many Russians are willing to die as cannon fodder so that Putin and his oligarchs can continue selling gas and ammonia to their dear Western partners. On the other hand, if Russia continues striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will be forced to leave their homes and move to the West. At least until March, people in Kyiv, as well as in many other regions in Ukraine, will continue facing electricity shortages, which means that conditions in many parts of the war-torn country will become unlivable.
Thus, 2023 will be unlikely to bring any positive developments for the Russian and Ukrainian populations.
Next year will, however, mark the beginning of the end of the Putin regime. Sooner or later, he will either be forced to resign, or will be overthrown, although not necessarily in 2023, and possibly not even before the end of the Ukraine war. From the Western perspective, the longer Putin and his corrupt and incompetent officials and generals stay in power, the better.
In 2023, the level of apathy in the Russian society will undoubtedly continue to grow, which will have an impact on the situation on the front where morale of the Russian troops will remain low. As a result, Russia will lose more territories and will be forced to declare another partial mobilization. Such half-measures will only prolong the agony and will not resolve any of the problems Russia is facing in Ukraine.
At this point, it remains highly uncertain if Ukraine, by the end of 2023, has the capacity to recapture all the territories occupied by Russia. But given that the West will continue providing support to Kyiv, sooner or later Ukraine will be able to reach its pre-February 24 de facto borders. After that, Moscow and Kyiv might reach a ceasefire deal that will be exclusively under the Ukrainian conditions. However, such an outcome will not end the war. Positional warfare will go on until Ukraine gets more sophisticated Western-made weapons and launches a large-scale military offensive that will force Russia to leave both the Donbass and Crimea.
Once that happens, the Ukraine war might be over, although that will not be the end of energy and economic crisis in Europe. The end of the Ukraine conflict will mark the beginning of political and ethnic turbulences in the Russian Federation, which could eventually escalate and lead to a series of ethnic conflicts. And that will be final the result of Putin’s “special military operation”.
Images: Kherson TV Tower, blown up by Russian army just before retreating from Kherson in November 2022 by armyinform.com.ua and Protest by Russians living in the Czech Republic against the war in Ukraine. Prague, Old Town Square, March 26, 2022 by AlexVolter
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