“Yevgeny Prigozhin was a man of a complicated fate, and he made serious mistakes in his life”, said Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 24, following the death of his former ally. Indeed, the Wagner Group leader’s biggest mistakes was his decision not to seize Moscow on June 23 – when several Russian top officials, including Putin, had reportedly fled the city – but to instead make a deal with the Kremlin.
During Prigozhin’s mutiny it became crystal clear that the Russian Federation is a failed state. As such, it was not able to prevent 25,000 Wagner mercenaries from reaching Moscow. Had it not been for Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Putin would probably have been overthrown. Under a deal brokered by the Belarusian leader, Prigozhin abandoned his “march for justice” on Moscow in exchange for safe passage to exile in Belarus.
Following the event, Lukashenko said Putin would not “wipe out” Prigozhin because the Russian president was not “malevolent and vindictive”. But in 2018, Putin stressed that he “does not forgive betrayal”, while on June 24 he accused the Wagner leaders of treason.
Thus, it remains unclear why Prigozhin did not count on Putin’s vindictiveness before he agreed to make a deal with the Kremlin.
Conspiracy theorists would argue that Prigozhin is not dead and that he, together with the Kremlin, staged his death. More rational analysts debate who is behind the Wagner frontman’s murder. Some political forces in Russia accuse the country’s Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, rather than Putin, of shooting down Prigozhin’s plane on August 23. Such a narrative aims to present the Russian President as a “good tsar” who “does not know” what his “evil boyars” are doing.
Some pro-Kremlin propagandists, on the other hand, claim that both Shoigu and Putin are innocent, and that Ukraine and the West are responsible for the assassination of Yevgeny Prigozhin. They, however, refuse to explain why Russia’s “powerful” intelligence services did not prevent such Western and Ukrainian actions. Moreover, it is considered an open secret that, over the past nine years, several top pro-Russian Donbass commanders were killed not by Ukraine, but by the Kremlin. There are indications suggesting that the Wagner Group was involved in some assassinations in the Donbass. Indeed, “for all who draw the sword will die by the sword.”
In the West, it is widely believed that the Russian leader killed Prigozhin – the 62-year-old former hot dog seller who was often labeled as Putin’s chef. Such a narrative, however, overlooks the fact that Putin is not a “powerful Russian tsar”, but rather a mediator and a manager whose task is to balance the interests of various oligarchic groups within the Kremlin. Therefore, it is not very probable that Putin himself ordered the plane crash to kill Prigozhin. If anyone is to blame for the Wagner frontman’s death, then it is the “collective Putin” – the oligarchy that has been ruling Russia for decades.
Now that the Wagner Group no longer represents a threat for certain political circles in the Kremlin, “the collective Putin” will not find it difficult to restructure the private military company. The problem, however, is that without Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin – a Russian army officer whose callsign was “Wagner” (which is how the group got its name) – the group is unlikely to preserve the status of one of the strongest military organizations in the world. Instead, it is expected to be incorporated into the Russian Armed Forces (one way or another) although it may continue doing “the dirty jobs” for the Kremlin in certain African countries.
In Ukraine, the Wagner Group may continue playing the role of cannon fodder, although it is rather questionable whether its “employees” will be loyal to a new company’s leadership. Fighters who decide to remain in Wagner will have to pledge their loyalty to the Russian Federation, and to “strictly follow their commanders and superiors’ orders”. In other words, instead of being Prigozhin’s pawns, they will now be an instrument in Shoigu’s hands.
But unlike Prigozhin, who was a very charismatic figure, Shoigu has zero charisma, and is reportedly widely despised among the Russian commanders. Moreover, unlike Putin – who is the king of deception – Prigozhin never pretended to be something is not. He never hid that he was convicted, and that he spent nine years in Soviet prisons for crimes including robbery and fraud. It was a well-known fact that he had enormous wealth, although that did not prevent him from sleeping in military tents with his soldiers. Putin, on the other hand, seems to prefer spending time on his $30 million luxurious yacht, while pretending to live an ascetic life.
Now that Prigozhin is gone, there is no political actor in Russia who can undermine Putin’s position. That, however, does not mean that there is nothing to keep the Russian leader from a good night’s sleep. If Russia continues suffering defeats in Ukraine, sooner or later Putin could face another mutiny. Although next time, the regular Russian military, rather than the Wagner mercenaries, could attempt to seize Moscow. Knowing what Prigozhin’s “serious mistake” was, they are unlikely to stop halfway.
Images: PLATEL, УлПравда ТВ and Unknown author
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