Russia’s military and political debacle in Ukraine seems to have no end. After the Russian Armed Forces withdrew from the Kharkiv region in September, the Kremlin continued its policy of “strategic regrouping” by abandoning Kherson – a territory Moscow sees as an integral part of the Russian Federation.
On September 30, following the Kharkiv fiasco, Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed the Kherson and the Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, as well as the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic into the Russian Federation. That, however, did not prevent Ukraine from regaining Kherson. The Russian army did not even attempt to defend the city. It has abandoned Kherson without a fight, which represents a huge humiliation for Moscow.
The Russian army did not even attempt to defend the city
From the Russian perspective, Kherson is a subject of the Russian Federation. Withdrawing from the strategically important city represents a precedent that can have an impact on the very future of Russia. If the Kremlin can leave what it sees as part of the Russian territory, what prevents Putin and his generals from ordering the Russian military to withdraw from Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhia region, Donetsk, Lugansk, or even Crimea?
Now that Russia no longer controls Kherson, the entire left bank of the Dniepr River, as well as parts of northern Crimea, are within the range of Ukrainian artillery. The Eastern European country will almost certainly strike Russian positions in the region, forcing Moscow to make another “strategic regrouping”. Once that happens, Russian military will have to withdraw all the way to Crimea. Meanwhile, Ukraine is expected to attempt to capture Melitopol, as well as the town of Svatove in the Lugansk region. If Kyiv manages to achieve those military goals, the Ukrainian Armed Forces might return to the pre-February 24 borders by the end of the year.
Militarily, Russia has the capacity to defend its current positions, especially since Moscow recently mobilized 300.000 troops. Politically, Putin and his elite have the capacity to completely withdraw from Ukraine and portray such a move as a “heroic retreat”. Given that the Russian military is not an autonomous actor, but a corrupt institution that follows instructions it gets from the Kremlin, the sky is the limit when it comes to “strategic regroupings” and “goodwill gestures”.
The Kherson debacle has clearly demonstrated that, for Moscow, the political aspect of the conflict takes priority over military matters. Following Russia’s humiliating withdrawal from Kherson, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the city on November 29. The Kremlin remained silent over the Ukrainian leader’s action, despite the fact that Moscow sees Kherson as part of the Russian Federation. More importantly, the Russian military did not even attempt to shell the city while Zelensky was there, which is not surprising given that the Kremlin desperately wants to negotiate with the Ukrainian President. That is why Zelensky felt perfectly safe in Kherson, just like he did not have to worry about his safety on September 14 when he visited Izyum – another strategically important city that Russia abandoned, leaving behind large amounts of weapons.
In Kherson, locals have welcomed Ukrainian Armed Forces and celebrated their liberation from the Russian occupation. Similar scenes will soon become reality in many other places in southern Ukraine. In Crimea – if Ukraine does not manage to restore its sovereignty over the peninsula peacefully – the Crimean Tatars, backed by Turkey, will likely soon provide logistic support to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. If Ukraine, with or without the Crimean Tatars’ help, eventually destroys the Crimean Bridge, Russian troops on the peninsula will be cut off, and the Russian population will have a hard time evacuating from Crimea. In order to prevent that, the Kremlin will have to make huge concessions to Kyiv.
Still, at this point the fall of Crimea does not seem realistic, although in the long-term such an option should not be ruled out. For Ukraine, it will be far more difficult to recapture Donetsk, as well as other places in the Donbass where locals, unlike those living in Kherson, genuinely want to be part of Russia. It is entirely possible that they will provide a fierce resistance, unless the Kremlin forces them to retreat.
But before that happens, the Kremlin will almost certainly order Russian troops to withdraw from the Kinburn Spit – a narrow finger of sand and scrub, barely three miles long, that juts from the wider Kinburn Peninsula into the Black Sea at the mouth of the Dniepr River south of Kherson – in order to enable Ukraine to export its grains from the neighboring port of Mykolaiv. In return, the West might symbolically lift some of the sanctions imposed on Moscow following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As a result of the Russian withdrawal from Kherson, the London Metal Exchange said it will not ban Russian metal from being traded and stored in its system, and the Dutch government announced it would release a consignment of 20,000 tons of Russian fertilizer that had been stuck in Rotterdam. Such moves are likely a “reward” for Putin’s “goodwill gesture” in Kherson.
One thing is for sure: In the coming days, weeks and months, Russia will continue suffering humiliating defeats in Ukraine.
Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy took part in hoisting the State Flag of Ukraine in liberated Kherson
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