The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is often portrayed as a “NATO of the East.” For some authors, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is a “Eurasian equivalent of the European Union.” But what is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – the world’s largest regional multilateral group by geographic area and population?
Founded in 2001, the SCO comprises China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan. The observer countries are Afghanistan, Belarus, and Mongolia, while the organization has 14 dialogue partner states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cambodia, Egypt, Kuwait, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.
Even though the SCO represents more than three billion people, and accounts for a quarter of world’s GDP, it is still seen as “the world’s least known and least analyzed” multilateral group.
Since its establishment, the SCO has concluded several wide-ranging agreements on security, trade, investment, connectivity, energy, and culture. But as Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev repeatedly stated, not a single major economic project was implemented under the auspices of the SCO for more than 20 years.
The divergence among its members is very complex. It is no secret that India is not comfortable with China’s influence over SCO activities. As a result of the growing geopolitical rivalry between Beijing and New Delhi, as well as the regional animosity between India and Pakistan, it is very difficult for the SCO to reach consensus over some crucial matters and strengthen the role of the organization in the international arena.
India sees its membership in the SCO as a means to achieve its own geopolitical interests, and increase engagements with the Eurasian region. China, on the other hand, seems to see the SCO as a tool to increase its influence in Central Asia. But the regional countries have diametrically opposed goals. To reduce their dependence on both China and Russia, most, if not all, Central Asian nations expect the West, rather than SCO, to play a bigger role in the region.
Although Chinese officials and experts claim that the SCO is not an anti-Western, but a non-Western group, some of its members have a history of tense relations with the United States and its allies. Unlike India – a country having close relationships with Western powers – Russia and Iran are widely seen as nations pursuing anti-Western policy. After Belarus becomes the entrant at the upcoming summit in Astana on July 3-4, anti-West character of the SCO could grow.
That, however, does not mean that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has the capacity to threaten the dominance of the West in the global arena. Even though it represents 70 percent of the Eurasian landmass, the SCO’s role in the region remains rather limited. Unless Kazakhstan’s proposals for transformation of the SCO into an effective multilateral cooperation mechanism are adopted, the organization can unlikely become a major actor in Eurasia.
The Central Asian nation, chairing the SCO in 2024, also strongly advocates for regional cooperation and multilateralism. Over the years, Astana has proposed major initiatives such as the creation of an SCO investment fund, and sought to convert the Shanghai Cooperation Organization into a more practical and productive platform. But other actors seem to have slightly different goals.
For China, the SCO summit in Astana will serve as an instrument that could help it increase its influence in the strategically important region of Central Asia. For Russia, it will be another opportunity to show that its leader Vladimir Putin managed to break “the international isolation.” For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the event will be a chance to finally meet with his “dear friend” Vladimir Putin.
Prior to the Russian presidential election, held in March 2024, the Kremlin signaled that “after the vote” Putin might visit Turkey to hold talks with Erdogan. Since the Russian leader could not be sure that his “friend” would not “betray” him again, have him arrested, and send him to The Hague where he could face a war crime trial, he slightly changed his travel plans. Putin’s first foreign trip after taking office was to China, where he met with the Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The two leaders will almost certainly use the summit in Astana to hold another bilateral meeting. They are also expected to meet with their host, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who could insist on carefully crafting the summit’s final documents aiming to reflect the views and positions of all SCO member states.
The SCO summit will likely help Kazakhstan – a member of CSTO and EAEU – to strengthen its positions not only in Eurasia, but also vis-à-vis Western powers that Astana can use as a counterbalance to the Russo-Chinese dominance in the region. Thus, besides Belarus – that will become the only Eastern European country in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization – Kazakhstan could very well be the major beneficiary of the upcoming summit.
Image: Shanghai Cooperation Organization Secretariat by N509FZ
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