The Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) exists merely on paper. In reality, the Moscow-led block never supported the Kremlin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine and most of its members have taken a neutral stance regarding the war in the Eastern European country.
The United States-dominated North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), on the other hand, openly backs Ukraine, and several members of the Alliance supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces with various categories of weapons. More importantly, NATO, unlike CSTO, is eyeing expansion. Finland and Sweden are on the verge of joining “the strongest military Alliance in history” while nations such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Ukraine have declared their aspirations towards NATO membership.
NATO is the strongest military Alliance in history. Our commitment to #Article5 is iron-clad: we stand united to defend all Allies. We swiftly responded to the deterioration of our security environment by strengthening our eastern flank. Freedom will always win over oppression. pic.twitter.com/xws1rXIruF
— U.S. Mission to NATO (@USNATO) March 4, 2022
For Russian President Vladimir Putin, Sweden’s and Finland’s desire to join NATO does not seem to be a big deal. He claims that there is “no direct threat to Russia from the Alliance’s expansion to the two Nordic nations”. At the same time, he insists that Moscow’s response to the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO will depend on the expansion of the Alliance’s infrastructure.
Before he launched the invasion of Ukraine, Putin issued an “ultimatum” to the US, demanding written guarantees that Kyiv will never join NATO. According to his logic, Ukraine’s potential NATO membership would be a big threat for Russia, but if neighboring Finland joins the Alliance, the Kremlin will simply turn a blind eye.
Due to such an unprincipled Russian policy, Moscow’s nominal CSTO allies seem to be attempting to distance themselves from the Kremlin. Quite aware that Russia cannot protect itself, let alone other nations, some CSTO members have started actively developing military cooperation with the United States and Turkey. In addition, some Russian allies are very worried about the potential destabilization of their own regions.
CSTO member Tajikistan has good reason to fear that the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), based in Afghanistan, could soon attempt to seize certain portions of the Central Asian country’s territories. Reports suggest that the IS-K recently fired rockets into Tajikistan, which is why Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said on May 16 that the situation in Afghanistan threatens the security and stability of CSTO members.
According to Article 4 of the CSTO Treaty, “an act of aggression (an armed attack that threatens security, stability, territorial integrity, and sovereignty) against one of the member states will be considered as a collective act of aggression on all member states of the CSTO”. Thus, if IS-K attacks Tajikistan, CSTO would have to intervene to protect its member. But would CSTO really do that?
During the CSTO summit in Moscow, held on the 30th anniversary of the Collective Security Treaty and the 20th anniversary of the CSTO, Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan openly accused CSTO of refusing to protect Armenia against its archenemy Azerbaijan.
“Last year the Azerbaijani army infiltrated into the sovereign territory of Armenia. We applied to the CSTO for the use of mechanisms envisaged by crisis response procedure. Unfortunately, the organization’s response was not the one Armenia had expected”, Pashinyan stressed on May 16, accusing other CSTO members of selling weapons to Azerbaijan.
It is not a secret that Russia has been arming both Armenia and Azerbaijan for years; it is very hard to imagine the United States selling weapons to both Ukraine and Russia. But when it comes to the Kremlin and CSTO, anything is possible. Therefore, it is not surprising that the organization remains silent while Ukrainian forces conduct drone attacks on the Russian territory.
Russia’s military debacle in Ukraine has clearly demonstrated that its army is a paper tiger. It is rather questionable if Russian forces will manage to provide serious help to Tajikistan if the situation along the Afghan border escalates, or if internal ethnic conflicts erupt.
Politically, Moscow is isolated and can count only on Belarus’ partial support. Other CSTO members – Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan – do not seem willing to get involved in Putin’s adventures and the Kremlin does not seem to have the capacity to force them to openly side with Russia.
As a result, CSTO remains just another attempt by Moscow to preserve some former Soviet countries in its geopolitical orbit. But the war in Ukraine has shown that Russia’s influence in most CSTO nations is not nearly as strong as some might have thought. To this day, no Russian allies have recognized the Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and they have all refused to recognize Moscow-backed Donbass republics.
Thus, even if a direct confrontation against NATO eventually breaks out – which is not very likely to happen – Russia will still be on its own. As Putin sows, so shall he reap.
Image: www.kremlin.ru
