Kyrgyzstan – a Central Asian country that is seen as Russia’s most loyal nation in the Commonwealth of Independent States, as well as in the Eurasian Economic Union – will hold very uncertain parliamentary elections on October 4. Regardless of the outcome, the former Soviet republic’s geopolitical orientation will likely remain unchanged, although Belarus-style post-election protests are expected to take place all over the country.
There is no clear frontrunner in the elections and most of the political parties that contest the 120 seats in the Jogorku Kenesh (the Supreme Council) are relatively new or a merger of two or more parties. The current parliament was formed under former President Almazbek Atambayev, who was arrested in August 2019 and sentenced to 11 years and two months in prison on corruption charges. Atambayev has repeatedly presented himself as a pro-Russian politician, as he has spoken of the need for closer economic relations with Russia, although he often expressed his wish to achieve greater economic and energy independence from Moscow.
Still, Atambayev was the one who announced Kyrgyzstan’s entry into the Russia-dominated Eurasian Customs Union in 2015, while in 2014 he secured the withdrawal of the American military base from the country, amid pressure from the Kremlin. That, however, did not save him from being arrested after police stormed his country house and exchanged fire with his supporters. While he was in power, the country’s parliament, dominated by SDPK (Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan), was loyal to him, as in Kyrgyzstan all power is de facto concentrated in the hands of the president, even though the country is officially a parliamentary republic. After Atambayev’s successor Sooronbay Jeenbekov took office in 2017, the situation in the national assembly completely changed. All the political elite moved to the side of the new leadership, which triggered the split in the ruling party as former Atambayev loyalists started creating new political alliances. SDPK will not participate in the upcoming elections, and it remains to be seen if a new party, the Social Democrats (SDK), led by Atambayev’s sons, will pass the national electoral threshold of nine percent.
One of the main obstacles that many parties in Kyrgyzstan faces with is the mandatory registration fee of $63,500. Given that the former Soviet republic is one of the poorest countries in Central Asia with close to 32 percent of the population living below the poverty line, this amount is seen as too high by many observers and activists. That is why running for parliament is simply not affordable for many small parties. On the other hand, the electoral system is relatively similar to the European one, as each list is required to have at least 30 percent of female candidates, while 15 percent of the candidates must be from ethnic minorities and 15 percent of under 35 years old, as well as at least two candidates with disabilities. However, no party is allowed to hold more than 65 seats, and since the upcoming elections will be highly uncertain, it is unlikely that any political party will win the majority of seats.
In any case, the current election system, as well as the overall economic situation, could create preconditions for mass protests after the elections, which is a fairly typical history for Kyrgyzstan. For instance, the country had its first “color revolution” in 2005 after the parliamentary elections. Mass demonstrations resulted in the overthrow of then President Askar Akayev. Also, another Kyrgyz leader, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, was ousted during the so-called People’s April Revolution in April 2010. Still, none of the “revolutions” led to improvement in the economy, nor did they significantly affect the country’s relations with its neighbors and its main ally – Russia. Modern Kyrgyzstan is seen as Russia’s satellite-state, as its leaders, as well as founders of various political parties, are heavily dependent on the Kremlin. In 2013, under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan, Moscow opened its air base near the Kyrgyz northern city of Kant. According to Kyrgyz authorities, Russia plans to install new air- and missile-defense equipment and drones at this air base. Also, Kyrgyzstan’s parliament recently approved a bill that would increase Russia’s annual fee for renting land for its military facility in the Central Asian nation. The amount is rather symbolic. The current annual rental fee of $4,502,495 will be increased by $291,600. In any case, it is very unlikely that a new parliament will annul the country’s military agreements with Russia, as that would have severe consequences for Kyrgyzstan’s economy. For Bishkek, Russia is one of the most important trade partners, although in 2018 Kyrgyzstan exported a total of $1.32B to the United Kingdom, making the Great Britain the biggest buyer of Kyrgyzstan’s gold. Some Kyrgyz analysts claim that the UK’s influence in the country is growing, as British Ambassador to the Kyrgyz Republic Charles Garrett is actively promoting Chevening, which is the UK Government’s international awards programme aimed at developing global leaders. There is speculation that Garrett is working with both the country’s officials and local authorities, trying to “recruit” them to serve British geopolitical interests in Central Asia. Whether this is true or not, for the foreseeable future Kyrgyzstan will likely stay in Russia’s geopolitical orbit, even if the post-election protests paralyze the country.
Despite poverty, Kyrgyzstan is a rich country in terms of natural resources. The geologists estimate that the nation has nearly 27 billion tons of coal reserves, three billion of which are believed to be of exceptionally high quality. However, coal production decreased significantly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but that does not mean that foreign powers are not interested in this resource. Besides coal, water is one of Kyrgyzstan’s most important natural resource since it is primarily used to generate hydroelectric power. Data indicates that hydroelectric power accounts for more than 90 percent of the energy produced in Kyrgyzstan. Since the era of crude oil and natural gas is coming to an end, water and coal are expected to play a very important role in the coming decades. That is why the control of countries such as Kyrgyzstan could be on many foreign actors’ agenda in the years to come.
Image credit: premier.gov.ru / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Almazbek_Atambayev_(cropped).jpeg