Vladimir Putin will likely keep affecting Russian political life after 2024 when his presidential term ends. The government commission in Moscow is working on constitutional reform that the mainstream media in the West see as an effort by the Kremlin to allow the current Russian leader to continue to rule after 2024.
Although Putin denied that he plans to remain in power indefinitely, there is speculation that he is trying to find a way to keep the status of “the most influential political figure in Russia”. There are calls about introducing the role of “Supreme Ruler”, but it is not probable that such a proposal will be accepted. After the constitution is amended, the Russian government and the parliament are expected to become new formal centers of power, even though the president might keep control of the army, police and security, and will be appointing the heads of those services. Some analysts argue that Putin could become the next Russian Prime Minister, after his presidential term expires, although such an option is also very questionable. In 2024 he will be 71 and, since the role of the Prime Minister is a very operative one and requires travelling around the country almost on a daily basis, it is hard to imagine that Putin is keen on running the government as he did from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.
That, however, does not mean he is planning to completely retire. At this point, it looks very realistic that he will follow the footsteps of the former Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev. In March last year, he announced his retirement after nearly 30 years as leader of the central Asian state, but he kept control over the country’s influential Security Council, which sets guidelines for foreign and security policies. A new constitution might provide Putin an opportunity to make a similar political maneuver.
As of early February, the commission on the constitutional reform has reportedly received as many as 300 amendment proposals to be added to the state’s constitution. One of the proposals suggests that Russian presidents could become lawmakers for life in the upper house of parliament once their terms in the Kremlin end or they resign. It is worth noting that, under Russian law, lawmakers in the lower and upper houses of parliament are immune to criminal prosecution.
There was also an idea that the constitution should never permit the head of state to give away any territory. Since Putin and other Russian officials have been negotiating the status of the Kuril Islands – which have been an integral part of Russia for over seventy years – with Japanese leaders, it is unlikely that the new constitution will include such a prohibition. On the other hand, according to some reports, the new constitution could formally recognize Russia’s status as a “victorious power” in World War Two, and could also declare that families are an alliance only between a man and a woman. In addition, the new constitution could state that Russia will always be a nuclear power. However, declaring Russia as a “victorious power” will be unlikely to prevent the US-backed Japan from demanding the return of the Kuril Islands. The new Constitution might additionally cement Crimea as a subject in the Russian Federation, but that does not mean the West and Ukraine will ever accept the peninsula’s incorporation into Russia in 2014. When it comes to the nuclear weapons, Russia will likely remain the so-called nuclear triad country, which means that is will keep in its position land-launched nuclear missiles, nuclear-missile-armed submarines and strategic aircraft. Formalizing its status as a nuclear power will hardly bring any benefits to Russia on the ground, though. It will still have to deal will growing pressure and sanctions from the West, particularly from the United States.
In any case, it remains to be seen what the final draft of the new constitution will be. Putin has said the changes would be put to a nationwide vote, but it is unclear if the referendum would be a mandatory or an optional one. Regardless of the option the Kremlin might choose, the constitutional reforms will be a controlled transition and redistribution of power, but in such a way that it does not affect the interests of the ruling elite. Putin is certainly part of the elite, but he is not “the strongman” the Western mainstream media try to portray. He is merely a manager who is making a balance between powerful oligarchs, members of the security apparatus, and other influential groups often linked with foreign powers.
Image credit: Kremlin
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