Only a miracle can save Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko from being overthrown. Nationwide strikes and mass protests have weakened the 66-year-old leader, who still has a certain legitimacy just because the security structures have not completely abandoned him, although their loyalty does not seem to be as strong as it was in the past.
Just a couple of weeks ago, it was unimaginable for Belarusian workers to debate and confront President Lukashenko, who would often visit state-owned factories and make speeches there. After the controversial presidential election, held on August 9, the situation in the Eastern European country completely changed. Although the Central Election Commission declared Lukashenko’s victory with 80 percent of the vote, while his main rival, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, reportedly won only 10 percent of the vote, the opposition did not recognize the official results.
Its supporters and activists came out to the streets of Minsk and other Belarusian cities and staged mass protests. Riot police responded in a brutal way. Clashes erupted, and dozens of protesters and police officers were injured. The authorities, unexpectedly, promptly changed their approach towards mass protests. Instead of declaring martial law and deploying troops to crackdown on anti-Lukashenko demonstrations, police were completely withdrawn from the streets. That is how Belarusian leaders attempted to deescalate the situation. However, the protests kept growing, and the country was paralyzed by nationwide strikes. Lukashenko had to find a way how to deal with the new reality. On a recent visit to a Minsk tractor plant, the Belarusian President sought to defend his disputed victory, telling workers: “We held the election. Until you kill me, there will be no other election.” However, in an attempt to pacify mass protests and strikes he also said he would be ready to hold new elections and hand over power but only after a constitutional referendum.
Lukashenko seems to be attempting to buy some time, but it is very unlikely that his plan will work. He is trying to endure the protests in the same way that French President Emmanuel Macron has endured the Yellow Vest demonstrations. There is a crucial difference, though. The West has turned a blind eye to protests in France, but it will not close its eyes when it comes to demonstrations in Belarus. The European Union and Great Britain have already announced that they are going to impose sanctions on Lukashenko and several Belarusian officials following the post-election crackdown on demonstrators. This is a method of pressure not on Lukashenko directly, but on his coworkers. In order to avoid being sanctioned by the West, some of them will likely “join the people” and turn their back on the Belarusian President. For now, some of his former allies have already openly supported the protests. Also, local TV stations have started live broadcasting anti-Lukashenko rallies. If he loses control over the state-owned media, his downfall will be just a matter of time.
So far, protesters have not attempted to storm any government buildings, including TV stations, as they are likely waiting for guarantees that police will not intervene. It is quite possible that, behind the scenes, foreign powers and key members of the Belarusian security apparatus are negotiating the fate of Alexander Lukashenko. Once the final deal is made, the Belarusian leader will be left in the lurch. If he does not flee the country, he will be either arrested or killed. In any case, his days in power seem to be numbered. Russia, which is seen as Belarus’ only ally, is not showing any interest in protecting its client. Moreover, it is quite questionable whether the Kremlin needs an alliance with Belarus at all, with or without Lukashenko in power.
Belarus is an energy-poor country, which means that its economy heavily depends on the import of natural gas and oil. For years, Russia has been providing cheap energy to its neighbor and subsidizing the Belarusian economy. In the post-Covid world, the energy trade is expected to be reformed, and Russia will be unlikely to waste its natural resources on its former satellite states that can provide nothing in return. The Kremlin seems to be distancing itself from Belarus, even if that means that Minsk could eventually enter the Western geopolitical orbit. It is worth noting that in 2014 Russia lost control over Ukraine, but not over the coal-rich Donbass region, and the Crimean Peninsula that reportedly has significant natural gas reserves. Since Belarus does not have any coal, gas or oil reserves, it is very unlikely that the Russian military will intervene there. Instead, the Kremlin will keep accusing its “dear Western partners” of destabilizing Belarus but, out of the public view, Russia and the West will likely redistribute Belarusian wealth, primarily its industry.
Since a destabilization of the country that is heavily in Russia’s geopolitical orbit is virtually impossible without the Kremlin’s tacit approval, it is likely that Moscow and the West have already made some lucrative deals regarding a post-Lukashenko Belarus. It remains to be seen which successful Belarusian state-owned companies will be privatized by Russian oligarchs, and which enterprises will be bought by Western corporations.
Image credit: Angela N.