Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, Serbia has been relatively successfully balancing its aspirations to join the European Union and its good political ties with the Kremlin. The Balkan nation, allegedly under pressure from the West, now seems to be attempting to distance itself from Moscow.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was scheduled to visit Serbia on June 6, in a big act of defiance towards the EU. However, Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro closed their airspace for the Russian diplomat – a move that forced Lavrov to cancel his trip to Belgrade.
Hypothetically, Lavrov could have arrived to the Serbian capital with Air Serbia – the only European airline still flying to and from Russia – although using a commercial airline would represent a humiliation for the Russian Foreign Minister. Besides, quite aware that the West could implement the same strategy that Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko used against a former dissident Roman Protasevich in May 2021, Lavrov did not want to take the chance. It is worth remembering that the Belarusian leader ordered security services to force a Ryanair plane, flying from Athens to Vilnius, to land in Minsk, which resulted in Protasevich’s imprisonment. Lavrov, therefore, decided to cancel his visit to Serbia, and accused NATO and the EU of wanting to “turn the Balkans into their own project called closed Balkans.”
In reality, the West is actively pushing the Balkan countries that are out of the EU to integrate into the Open Balkans Initiative, although it is entirely possible that the project will be closed to Russia. Even Serbia, a military neutral country that is deliberately being portrayed as a “Russian ally”, is signaling that it aims to limit its economic cooperation with Moscow.
Even though Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic recently made a new gas deal with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, Belgrade seems to be attempting to diversify its energy imports. The southeastern European country, which is 100 percent dependent on Russian natural gas, is reportedly eyeing up an energy deal with Azerbaijan.
During her visit to Baku on June 1, Zorana Mihajlovic, the Serbian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Mining and Energy, and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev reportedly reached a deal on gas supplies to the Balkan nation. In February, Serbia started the construction of the Serbia-Bulgaria gas interconnection, which is expected to be completed next year and will allow Serbia to receive gas from Azerbaijan. The problem, however, is that Azerbaijan’s gas, at least in the short and mid-term, is unlikely to replace Russian energy, given that the Caucasus country cannot produce enough gas to satisfy the needs of most European consumers.
Still, Serbia does not have much choice but to look for alternatives to Russian energy. As a result of the EU’s latest sanctions against Russia, the landlocked southeastern European nation will no longer receive Russian crude oil from the Adriatic oil pipeline JANAF. Thus, in order to preserve energy security, Serbia will have to quickly sign a deal with other oil producers, which will not be easy given the current global energy crisis.
On the other hand, according to the deal between Putin and Vucic, Serbia will be purchasing Russian gas for $340-350 per 1,000 cubic meters, which is far below the market price. The very fact that the EU and the United States did not pressure Belgrade to give up its gas cooperation with Moscow suggests that the West gave Vucic the green light to make a deal with Putin.
Moreover, the only reason why Serbia remains one of a handful of European countries that has not joined in with sanctions is because the West never seriously pressured Belgrade to do so. From the Western perspective, countries such as Serbia and Turkey, as well as Hungary to a certain degree, could serve as places where Moscow and its Western partners could eventually negotiate a potential peace deal in Ukraine. Still, at this point, the world seems to be very far from such an outcome.
Meanwhile, Russia continues with its escalatory rhetoric. After it became clear that several European countries did not plan to allow Sergey Lavrov’s plane to fly through their airspace to reach Serbia, Russian space chief Dmitry Rogozin threatened Bulgaria, Romania and Montenegro with a nuclear strike. Given that Russia still has not fulfilled its promises to strike “decision-making centers” in Kyiv, the West will undoubtedly see Rogozin’s statements as another empty Russian threat.
Serbia, for its part, will remain stuck between a rock and a hard place as long as the war in Ukraine goes on. Since the country is completely surrounded by NATO and EU members, Belgrade is expected to go with the flow, which will gradually lead to a cooling of relations between Serbia and Russia.
Finally, Lavrov’s failed attempt to visit Serbia can be interpreted as a clear sign that the Balkans remain deeply in the United States’ and the European Union’s geopolitical orbit, and that Russia’s influence in the region is rather limited.
Images: Color Media Communications and European People’s Party
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