Russia is mobilizing as Putin continues to lose his “three-day war” in Ukraine — and as someone who lived and worked in Russia for years, I must beg everyone else to do the following:
Stop taking what Russian officials say at face value. From Putin, a bloodthirsty ghoul in Loro Piana, down to the lowest, most perpetually hungover and poorly dressed Russian kommissar: these people lie.
Lying is an essential tool of state power in Russia, and much of what I have written years ago on the subject holds up today.
This is why they said they’re mobilizing 300k troops when the real number they want to throw at Ukraine is a ludicrous figure of over 1 million, and this is why they insist that they are going to train and properly equip the newly mobilized, when nothing of the sort is actually happening.
Recent video where a medic(?) tells the newly mobilized russian recruits they need to buy their own camping mats and sleeping bags because the army won’t provide it.
She also suggests taking IFAKs from their car and buying sanitary pads and tampons for bleeding. pic.twitter.com/9e0nasEBVv
— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) September 27, 2022
By far the biggest lie is the idea that Putin is ready and willing to use a tactical nuclear weapon should mobilization not achieved his desired result — which is destroying Ukraine as an independent state and Ukrainians as a people, i.e. genocide. Could this still happen? Absolutely. Putin is a criminally insane man and we are in dangerous territory. All of us, collectively, as inhabitants of planet Earth.
But this is also the kind of decision that draws NATO directly into the conflict and spells the end of the Russian regime, if not life as we know it. Many of the people in powerful positions in Russia understand this, and always have, just as they understand that Russia’s famous nuclear arsenal is likely very degraded. Years of corruption and neglect would point to this. Putin himself is likely beginning to understand that propaganda about his allegedly superior military is covering up a hard truth.
Today, Russia is blackmailing the world, and seeing ordinary people give in to the blackmail raises my hackles.
I recently had a huge spat with a friend of a friend about this. This person was claiming that our government should give in to the nuclear blackmail, not understanding how Russia works, and not caring much. They were scared and wanted the problem to go away.
Fear is good and natural at times like these. But fear must not cloud our judgment. Letting Russia act like a terrorist sets a horrible precedent and erases the very idea behind nuclear deterrence.
“I have nukes, so I can do what I want” is not what you want anyone to think, least of all Russia.
What do we do instead? Take a cue from the Ukrainians and toughen up. Stop thinking about death. Start thinking about what you are living for instead.
The 17th century Zen master Shido Bunan wrote, “Die while you are alive, and be completely dead. Then do whatever you want. All is well.”
This same answer applies to other, perhaps less existential but no less important, questions.
Take a look at the energy crisis currently gripping Europe. In particular, reliance on cheap Russian gas was always bound to be a dead end. It’s a terrible situation, but — again, if you have decent experience with the modern Russian state and how it functions, you know what I’m talking about right now — it was always going to happen.
“If only the Ukrainians hadn’t resisted, then my energy bill wouldn’t be going up.” Nope. Russia was always going to screw its so-called “partners,” one way or another. If it didn’t happen over Ukraine, it would’ve happened over something else. That’s because the Russian system is fundamentally rotten and volatile. Ukrainians themselves have known this for years. The rest of Europe is now catching up.
It’s not fair. None of it is. But here we are anyway.
The Russian imperial mindset states that everyone can be bought or intimidated — or liquidated if it needs to be. That’s the truth staring us in the face, no matter how much Russian diplomats hem and haw and try to obscure the issue.
This is not going to change until Russia has its own reckoning. Ukrainians are forcing that reckoning. Keep arming them.
Image: Johannes Plenio