“Russia does not deserve a millimeter of the victory of its grandfathers in the World War 2”, said Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner private military company frontman, in a video released on Russia’s traditional May 9 Victory Day. Indeed, the Russian Federation has proven an inability to achieve small tactical victories in Ukraine, let alone the Soviet-style grandiose victory of 1945.
That, however, did not prevent the Kremlin from holding another Victory Day parade in Moscow. Many other Russian cities – especially in regions close to Ukraine – had to cancel the annual celebration “in order not to provoke the Ukrainian army”. The Eastern European country’s armed forces have proved able to conduct drone strikes all over Russia, which means that they did have capacity to spoil the celebration of the Victory Day at the Red Square. Since that did not happen, it is entirely possible that the Kremlin got firm “security guarantees” from Ukraine that there will not be any acts of sabotage during the event that is, for political reasons, very important for the Russian leadership. If true, it remains to be seen what will Moscow have to give to Kyiv in return.
Just days before the parade, Russia accused Ukraine of attacking the Kremlin with drones in an attempt to kill President Vladimir Putin. Whether Kyiv is really behind the attack or not does not change the fact that Russia has suffered another humiliation. But in order to preserve the illusion that things in the Russian capital are under control, the Kremlin organized one of the smallest parades in Russia’s history.
Russian military did not show any modern tanks, including Armata, infantry fighting vehicles, or aviation. Not even Iskander ballistic missile system were presented. The walking part of the parade mainly consisted of cadets and students of military universities. Inevitably, questions are being asked about what was the point of such an event.
The fact that leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Armenia attended the Victory Day parade can help the Kremlin to strengthen its propaganda narrative that Russia is not isolated in the global arena. But that will not help Russia resolve some of its crucial problems – from poorly equipped and trained army, to a lack of motivation among Russian troops to fight in Ukraine.
“It is not a problem about the soldiers. The problem is to do with the people who manage them and give them tasks. The fish rots from the head”, Prigozhin said, avoiding to directly mention Putin, even though he is the head of the Russian state.
Putin, on the other hand, blames the West for what is happening in Ukraine, claiming that a “real war is being waged against Russia”. In reality, it was Russia that waged the war against Ukraine, but the Russian leader likely uses such a rhetoric aiming to encourage the Russian population to endure all the adversities it is facing due to his military adventure in the Eastern European country. But the Russian people do not seem to feel safe anymore. Some residents of the Belgorod region bordering Ukraine have asked Prigozhin, rather than Putin, to “save them from constant Ukrainian shelling”.
Prigozhin, a wealthy entrepreneur with close ties to Putin, is trying to present himself as a strongman who is willing to fight “until victory”. At this point, he still avoids openly criticizing the Russian President, but if Russia, as a result of the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive, suffers another humiliating defeat, he is expected to start blaming not only the country’s military leadership, but also Vladimir Putin. That, however, does not necessarily mean that Prigozhin will ever be in a position to replace Putin as the Russian leader. The reason is rather bizarre – he is bald. According to the unofficial rule of the leaders’ succession in Russia, which is often seen in light of political jokes, bald and hairy leaders alternate each other. For instance, Lenin was bald, Stalin had hair. Khrushchev was bald, Brezhnev had hair. Andropov was nearly bald, Chernenko had hair. Gorbachev is bald, Yeltsin had hair. Putin is bald, Medvedev has hair. This unspoken rule has never been broken since 1825, which is why Putin’s successor is expected to have hair.
Still, Prigozhin could play a very important role in the Russian political arena. The Wagner de facto chief is believed to be supported by Yury Kovalchuk, the Russian oligarch closest to Putin, as well as by Sergey Kiriyenko, the first deputy head of the presidential administration. He seems to have gotten the green light from powerful structures within the Kremlin to rant at Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, and Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff, as well as at Russian top generals he accused of trying to “deceive” Putin. But if the Russian President is so naïve, why Kovalchuk, Kiriyenko, and other members of the Russian oligarchy still have not staged a “palace coup” against him, and replaced Putin with a figure that will “properly fight the war”?
One thing is for sure: political divisions in the Kremlin will continue to grow. Eventually, if it becomes clear that Putin and some members of his team have become a burden for the Russian ruling elite, they will be forced to resign. As a result, new frontmen will come to power, but the system behind them will remain intact.
Image: Moscow Victory Day Parade 2023 by Минобороны России
