While Ukraine prepares to launch a large-scale counteroffensive against the Russian forces in the southeast of the country, the Kremlin-linked Wagner Group is reportedly eyeing up the Sudan conflict. But does Moscow have any political goals in the northeast African country?
“Death is our business – and business is good”, is a rather bizarre motto on an arm-patch sometimes worn by the Wagner Group’s soldiers. Indeed, for Wagner troops, it is completely irrelevant if they are fighting in Ukraine, Sudan, Syria, or in any other place. As “employees” of the private military company, they earn between $3,000 and $10,000 a month, according to some sources. Moreover, the conflict in Sudan seems to be another great opportunity for the Wagner Group to establish control over the country’s natural resources.
The Wagner Group is headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former inmate who once catered at the Kremlin, earning him the nickname “Putin’s chef”. It was founded in 2014 by Dmitry Utkin, a Russian army officer whose callsign was “Wagner”. That is how the group got its name. Wagner was very active in countries such as Mali, the Central African Republic, Syria, Libya, and Ukraine. The group is currently spearheading attempts to capture the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Wagner extensively relies on Russian military infrastructure, be it in Ukraine or in other places it operates.
The Kremlin-linked mercenaries are believed to have been invited into Sudan starting in 2017, shortly after then-leader Omar al-Bashir visited Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The group, however, denied it was operating in Sudan. On April 18, Prigozhin said that there is no single Wagner fighter in the northeast African nation at the moment. Western sources, on the other hand, speculate that Wagner has been supplying Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) with missiles to aid their fight against the country’s army.
General Abdel Fattah Burhan, head of the armed forces, and General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, the leader of a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces, are each seeking to seize control of Sudan. Most analysts say the conflict is a pure power struggle, and that it does not have an ethnic or an ideological background. Some experts claim that the longer the fighting that erupted on April 15 drags on the more likely it is we see major external intervention in the northeast African nation.
If necessary, Wagner can supply the RSF with weapons from neighboring Libya – where the group established a military presence in 2018, helping Khalifa Haftar’s forces in their fight against the Turkey-backed Government of National Accord – or even from the Central African Republic, where the Wagner Group reportedly fights for control over the country’s gold mines. It is widely believed that the exploitation of Sudan’s gold is the major reason for Wagner’s alleged involvement in the power struggle in Khartoum. According to reports, both Sudanese factions, opposing each other in the current conflict in the country, helped Russia smuggle gold out of Sudan, while the Kremlin likely waits to see the outcome of the hostilities and establish “friendly ties” with the winner.
On April 20, Prigozhin offered his mediation services to settle the conflict, emphasizing that he has long-term connections with Sudan and that he “communicated with all people making decisions in the northeast African country”. Thus, at this point, he is unlikely to openly side with the Rapid Support Forces, but will likely seek to portray himself as a “peacemaker”, hoping that such a policy will allow Wagner and the Kremlin to increase its influence in Sudan.
Russia’s interests in the northeast African nation do not stop at gold. In late 2020, Moscow announced plans to open a naval base in Sudan, giving Russia its first military foothold in Africa since the fall of the Soviet Union. The United States, however, strongly opposed such a Russian idea, and Khartoum – most likely under the American pressure – failed to ratify an agreement that would give Russia’s navy a 25-year lease at Port Sudan. Earlier this year, the Kremlin attempted to revive its ambitions to establish a navy presence in Sudan, but clashes between the two Sudanese rivalry military groups have put the Russian plans on hold.
Sudan seems to be heading for civil war, which means that the Kremlin is unlikely to get an opportunity to achieve its geopolitical goals in this country anytime soon. Thus, for the time being, the Wagner Group is expected to continue focusing on Ukraine, and keep implementing its suicidal frontal assault military tactics trying to capture towns that have zero strategic importance.
Image: The billboard reads: “PMC Wagner: Join team of victors now!”. Billboard was advertising service in PMC Wagner, probably recruiting people for war in Ukraine. By Alexander Davronov
