Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994, has reportedly started preparations for a transition of power. After Russia effectively helped him thwart the Western-backed opposition’s attempts to overthrow him in the summer and fall of 2020, he is now preparing the ground for his political successor. But who will eventually replace the 66-year old Belarusian strongman and how will that affect the country’s foreign policy?
On April 24, Lukashenko said that he will sign a decree allowing the transfer of presidential power to the Security Council if he were to become unable to perform his duties.
“I will sign a decree about how the power in Belarus will be set up. If the president is shot, the next day the Security Council will get the power,” Lukashenko pointed out.
In other words, if Lukashenko gets killed, or if he decides to resign, the Security Council will play the role of watchdog over the transfer of power. As the Belarusian leader explained, the Eastern European country will have a collective president in the form of the Security Council. Although the body will have a chairman, all decisions will be taken by a secret ballot so that there is no pressure. Still, it is very probable that Lukashenko will make sure his potential successor previously becomes a member of the Security Council. His eldest son Viktor, who was the Aide to the President for National Security, is seen as the informal leader of the council, although there is speculation that Lukashenko himself could join the Security Council. Such an action would give him a possibility to de facto stay in power after his term expires in 2025. In that case, Belarus would formally have a new president, while Lukashenko would still pull the strings behind the scenes.
Whether he will decide to make such a political maneuver or not, it is very unlikely that he will leave his post any time soon. Political analysts in Belarus argue that a potential Lukashenko’s decree, which would increase the powers of the Security Council, would violate the country’s constitution. Thus, it is not improbable that the Belarusian President will sign a document that would pave the way for a new political system, but in order to empower the Security Council, it is necessary to hold a referendum and amend the Constitution. There are already indications that citizens of Belarus could vote on a constitutional referendum in 2022. In the meantime, Lukashenko is expected to maintain control over presidential powers, and also to keep checking the loyalty of his allies.
Recently, the 66-year-old leader claimed that the country’s security services, with Moscow’s help, derailed a US plot to overthrow the government. Russia reportedly arrested two Belarusians, who were allegedly leading an attempt to organize a coup and kill Lukashenko. Belarusian pro-government media said that the plot had backing from Washington, primarily from Biden’s advisor Michael Carpenter. Russian media also widely covered this case, which puts the Kremlin in a difficult position ahead of the upcoming summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Joe Biden. Pro-Kremlin propagandists will have to explain why their leader agreed to meet with someone who has openly called him a killer, and who is apparently involved in an assassination attempt on Lukashenko.
The Kremlin has long pushed for closer ties in the form of a unified state with Belarus, but Lukashenko had balked at the idea until the controversial August 2020 presidential election that triggered mass protests against his 27-year rule. With Russia’s help, he managed to consolidate his power and defeat the opposition that is now exiled in neighboring Poland and Lithuania. As a result, Minsk ended its “multi-vector” foreign policy and started playing “the Russian card”.
“Our Russian vector has been, is and will always be the main one”, said Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei.
Lukashenko appears to have burned his bridges with the West, which additionally deepened Belarus’ dependency on Moscow. At the same time, the Kremlin remains resolute in selling relatively expensive gas ($128.5 per 1,000 cubic meters) to its only ally in Europe.
Energy, primarily natural gas and oil, was the main issue that Putin and Lukashenko recently discussed in the Russian capital. The three Baltic countries – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – have announced that they will stop buying Russian and Belarusian electricity as of 2025, which means that Ukraine will remain the only nation that is still purchasing Belarusian electricity. However, there are indications that Kiev, pressured by the West, could soon join the Baltic states and impose a ban on import of power from Minsk. In that case, Belarus will undoubtedly have more than enough electricity for its own needs, but will likely lack billions of dollars from power export. For this reason, the country may have to permanently rely on Russian loans to plug budget holes.
Indeed, difficult times lie ahead for Belarus. The inevitable transit of power will be unlikely to change the country’s foreign policy orientation. Moreover, by 2025 Belarus may enter even deeper into the Russian geopolitical orbit.
Image credit: Serge Serebro, Vitebsk Popular News
