The Russian Federation cannot project authority over parts of its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. As such, Russia is a de facto failed state, even though its ruling elite – despite the catastrophic defeats and humiliation Moscow continues suffering on a daily basis – attempts to preserve the illusion that the situation in the country is under control.
On 22 May 2023, it became crystal clear that Russia is unable to protect its own territory. According to reports, Ukraine-backed Liberty of Russia Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps were involved in cross-border incursion in Russia’s Belgorod region. The armed groups reportedly captured several settlements, including the Grayvoron border checkpoint. Such a move undoubtedly boosted Ukrainian troops’ morale ahead of their counteroffensive against the Russian forces in the Donbass, as well as in southern Ukraine.
The Kremlin, however, did not seem to be upset about the events in the Belgorod region. Although Dmitry Peskov, Russian Presidential Press Secretary, expressed his “deep concerns” over the penetration of what he described as “Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group” into the territory of Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, Moscow does not seem willing to change its military and political strategy regarding Ukraine.
Ever since Russia withdrew its troops from the Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions, as well as from the city of Kherson, the Russian army has not launched any offensive military operations in Ukraine. The only exception is the Donbass, where it took 224 days for the Wagner Group mercenaries to capture Bakhmut – a city that has no strategic importance whatsoever.
But in spite of that, according to Wagner’s frontman Yevgeny Prigozhin, the group lost 20,000 soldiers – half of which were convicts recruited from prisons –while fighting for “the Verdun of the 21st century”.
As a result of this Pyrrhic victory, Wagner is no longer capable of participating in the Ukraine war, at least until it recruits more fighters and trains them for another “meat grinder”. Meanwhile, Prigozhin will undoubtedly continue portraying himself not only as a warlord, but also as a political figure. His recent meeting with representatives of Russia’s western regions bordering Ukraine clearly indicates that that the Wagner frontman has very high political ambitions.
The battle for Bakhmut has helped the former conman create an image of a “macho leader” who, unlike President Vladimir Putin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, is apparently willing to fight the war “until victory”. In reality, if he ever manages to become an important decision-maker in the Kremlin, there is no guarantee that his policy regarding Ukraine would be any different than that the current Russian course.
The Russian Federation is as rotten as its military. Various oligarchic groups close to the Kremlin seem to have already started preparing the ground for a post-Putin Russia. Quite aware of that, Prigozhin is likely trying to find his place in a new Russian political reality. The Wagner Group, despite the huge losses it suffered in Bakhmut, still represents a respectable military force. Once reorganized, it will have capacity to play a significant role in a new Russian civil war that may come as a result of the Ukraine fiasco.
“If ordinary Russians continued getting their children back in zinc coffins while the children of the elite ‘shook their arses’ in the sun, Russia would face turmoil along the lines of the 1917 revolutions that ushered in a civil war”, Prigozhin warned.
But in spite of such a direct criticism against the Russian elite, he was never arrested or killed, unlike many other Kremlin critics who ended up dead or behind bars for speaking out against Putin and his oligarchs. Thus, Prigozhin seems to have gotten the green light from some powerful Russian structures to openly criticize and even insult certain Russian top officials, namely Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff.
Now that Wagner forces have begun withdrawing from Bakhmut and started handing over their positions to the Russian army, chances for escalation of Prigozhin’s feud with Shoigu and Gerasimov remain very high. If the Russian military, unmotivated to fight and highly disorganized, does not manage to preserve control over the city, Prigozhin will undoubtedly increase his efforts to force Putin to fire Shoigu and Gerasimov.
But the two top military officials are far from being Russia’s major problem. The entire political system in the country is rotten to the core. As such, it is unlikely to be transformed without bloodshed. Ukraine, for its part, can use the opportunity and recapture not only Bakhmut, but large portions of the Russian-controlled Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions as well. Alternatively, Kyiv can wait until it gets more Western-made weapons, including F-16 fighter jets, and then once again humiliate Russia on the battlefield.
One thing is for sure: Ukraine-backed Liberty of Russia Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps incursion in western Russia is far from being the last such an action. Russia under Putin has entered the “century of humiliation”, which means that many fiascos, debacles and defeats lie ahead of the country that was believed to be one of major world powers.
Image: Henry Söderlund