The world has yet to see the results of the Geneva summit between the US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Strategic stability, climate change, cybersecurity and the fate of the US and Russian nationals who are in prison in each other’s countries were on the agenda of the meeting, but the crucial things that the two leaders agreed in Switzerland will be made known in the coming months and years.
Prior to the summit, it became clear that the United States changed its approach to dealing with Russia. On May 26, Biden decided to waive sanctions against the company involved in the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline – linking Russia with Germany – because the project was “almost completely finished”. Washington de facto gave Moscow the green light to complete the pipeline that will effectively bypass Ukraine and deprive the country of up to US$3 billion in an annual revenue by allowing Russia to circumvent the former Soviet republic when transferring gas to Europe. Moreover, even though Kiev hopes to join NATO, and sees a membership in the alliance as a guarantee that it will be protected from a potential Russian intervention, the United States indirectly admitted that the Eastern European nation will stay out of NATO.
“It depends on whether they meet the criteria. The fact is they still have to clean up corruption” Biden said at a news conference on June 14 in Brussels following a NATO summit.
It is worth pointing out that countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, Albania and North Macedonia never had to meet such criteria before joining NATO, and to this day they have not cleaned up corruption. Thus, Biden likely sent a message to Putin prior to their meeting that the US will not cross Russia’s “red lines”. Ukraine’s membership in NATO seems to be one of them. Biden also openly refused to meet with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky before the US-Russia summit in Geneva, even though the Ukrainian leader pointed out on several occasions that it is necessary to hold direct talks with Biden in order to show the unity of the United States and Ukraine “in the face of Russian aggression.”
Still, according to reports, the American and Russian presidents discussed the situation in Ukraine, though the very fact that they did so without Zelensky’s participation is a clear sign that both the United States and Russia see the former Soviet republic as a “political object” rather than as an autonomous player.
“I communicated the United States’ unwavering commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. We agreed to pursue diplomacy related to the Minsk Agreement”, said Biden after the meeting with Putin.
Given that not a single point of the Minsk Agreement has been implemented since it was signed in 2015, it is very unlikely that there will be any progress regarding the Donbass conflict. Thus, positional warfare between the Russia-sponsored Donbass’ self-proclaimed republics and the US-backed Ukrainian army will continue for the foreseeable future.
it was Russia, not the United States, that had to make concessions even before the talks started
Days before the summit, however, Biden strived to distance himself from the topic of Ukraine, most likely due to corruption scandals – namely the Burisma company and its alleged ties with Hunter Biden – that the Republicans, primarily the Trumpists, can use against him. Also, prior to Biden’s meeting with Putin, it became obvious that Washington aimed to ease tensions with Moscow. That is why the US refused to directly accuse the Kremlin of hacking the US infrastructure, or to impose new sanctions against Russia over the recent actions of the Moscow-backed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. It seems that, for the Biden administration, even the arrest of the Kremlin critic Alexey Navalny became an internal Russian matter, although Biden emphasized that if the opposition politician dies in prison, the “consequences of that would be devastating for Russia”.
Putin, on the other hand, tried to get the summit to register as a meeting of equals, but in reality it was Russia, not the United States, that had to make concessions even before the talks started. For instance, on June 2, Switzerland announced that it would not accept certificates of Covid-19 vaccinations with the Russian-made Sputnik V for reporters covering the summit. The Kremlin had to obey this decision. Russia also had to accept other US terms and conditions about the Geneva summit. Putin was forced to give up his plans to hold a joint media conference with Biden because a separate press conference is “the practice of the American side“. Moreover, Putin, who is notorious for being late, arrived to the summit with Biden on time. It was the American President who came to the Villa La Grange 12 minutes late. All these small gestures suggest the Kremlin is quite aware of its place in the global arena and knows who has the upper hand in the US – Russia relations.
Finally, it is worth remembering that two political events related to Switzerland resulted in a Russian defeat. The Geneva Summit of 1985 between the US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev led to Perestroika – a political movement for reformation within the Communist Party of the Soviet Union – which effectively collapsed the Soviet economy. And after the visit of the President of Switzerland Didier Burkhalter to Moscow on May 7, 2014, the Kremlin stopped supporting pro-Russian protests in southeastern Ukraine, not including the energy-rich Donbass region.
The upcoming events related to Ukraine, Belarus, Syria, Libya and other hot points will show whether the Geneva summit of 2021 has more similarities with the Geneva conference of 1985 or with the Malta Summit of 1989, when the US President George Bush and the Soviet leader Mihkail Gorbachev reportedly declared an end to the Cold War. Judging by recent developments in the global arena, a new Cold War has already started, and its basic rules are about to be formulated.
Image credit: The White House
