Approximately half of the world’s population will have the right to vote throughout 2024. It is the first time that so many people will go to the polls at the same time to elect national, regional or parliamentary authorities.
Although this is the biggest electoral year in history, partly because of elections in some of the most populous countries such as India, the United States and Mexico, it is not exactly a victory for democracy. In some countries, elections are not synonymous with democracy, and there is even a risk of dangerous instability. The lines of action in these places are more related to visibly fraudulent results with threats to freedom of expression and the integrity of the process.
Democracy is in decline, according to the Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA). Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) data on the Democracy Index shows that, of the more than 70 elections this year, only 43 will be free and fair. According to EIU measurements, only 8% of the population lives in a full democracy, 39.4% lives under authoritarian regimes and 45.4% in some kind of democratic system.
In countries where elections are merely a formality to prolong anti-democratic agendas, the consequences of these processes will be difficult to anticipate, but the political panorama augurs different conflicts, which transcend the national scene and extend to geopolitical and economic problems, war conflicts and humanitarian crises.
Some of the elections in the first months of the year revealed potential destabilizations. In Taiwan, the Democratic Progressive Party, the branch most distant from Beijing’s positions, remained in power. These results mark the democratic course and instabilities in bilateral relations, as the Chinese government considers Taiwan as part of its country, even stating that attempts at separatism could lead to the end of stability in the Taiwan Strait. However, the elections were also marked by disinformation; years of deteriorating relations have increased the narratives of a potential conflict with alleged missiles flying over the airspace, videos generated with artificial intelligence to fake identities and viral messages of false support or criticism.
Social networks make the virality of false messages possible, but in countries where there is control over all communication media, democratic electoral processes are affected. In Russia it is illegal to qualify the war in Ukraine as a ‘war’, which puts any rival out of the game. In March, Vladimir Putin was reelected for the fifth time without surprise; since his term in office other opposition candidates have been excluded with actions such as imprisonment.
In Bangladesh, the 2024 elections have also been marked by irregularities during the reelection of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, with arrests of opposition members prior to the elections, repression during protests and persecution of human rights activists. In Bangladesh, speaking out against the election is risky and the elections have been qualified as neither free nor fair.
Issues like this cause public resentment and increase the likelihood of internal destabilization and turbulent periods. For example, the February elections in Pakistan were described as the most manipulated in the country’s history and ended with violence and protests. Dissident leaders have been persecuted, imprisoned and disqualified from running in elections, which is not well received by the electorate who do not approve of alleged military meddling in politics.
In Rwanda, Paul Kagame is seeking re-election for the fourth time in July while facing criticism for repression and imprisonment of journalists and the opposition. But these are not the only ways to gain electoral advantages. In Senegal, elections scheduled for February were suspended; although President Macky Sall expected to organize them in December, the delay generated violent protests in an already agitated political climate, which led him to reactivate the call to the polls for March. In South Sudan, Salva Kiir must fulfill the promise of elections this year to avoid further conflict, too.
A similar situation is occurring in Venezuela, where Nicolás Maduro called for elections for July, bringing forward the historically established date of December. With this strategy of moving the elections, he is trying to destabilize the opposition even more. One of his main tactics was to ban the top competitor, María Corina Machado, who has the support of the entire opposition. Machado, who seeks to break with the 24 years in power of Chavismo and Madurismo, designated Corina Yoris (an academic with no political past) as her replacement, perhaps provisionally. However, it is expected that Maduro will use some other strategy to prevent fair elections: to date, they have arrested or issued arrest warrants against some of Machado’s close collaborators for alleged conspiracy plans against Maduro, one of them is Machado’s Campaign Chief, who was the potential substitute after the disqualification. In the past, both Chávez and Maduro have resorted to disqualifications, disinformation, threats, detentions, repression, closure of the media and persecution, in addition, different sectors have denounced traps in the electoral process and irregularities with institutions illegally controlled by the government for years. Maduro’s worrying signals put the Barbados agreement, which that allowed the relaxation of economic sanctions (with the support of the position) to achieve a series of advances, including free and fair elections, at risk. However, the outlook is not encouraging, the country is far from free elections and this would nullify the agreements.
The electoral processes in these countries are complex, so simply voting on a paper ballot is not the whole answer. The list of elections this year is long, beyond the countries above, others such as Tunisia, Belarus, Iran or Mauritania, have a long history of destabilization. Democracy is not guaranteed in those places where there are no equal rights for voters and opposition politicians.
Image: Eneas De Troya
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